FX Daily Outlook|20-04-16
Posted on April 20, 2016 at 9:08 am GMT[..]
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GBPJPY maintains a bearish outlook near the lowest levels since August 2013. The pair has been falling sharply since November 2015, making lower highs and lower lows until reaching 151.63. The thick Ichimoku cloud above the market will likely cap any gains. Prices tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 157.00 on Tuesday before turning back down. This is the retracement of the downleg from 162.48 to 151.63 (March 29 to April 7 decline). The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are negative [..]
NZDUSD jumped to a 10-month high on Tuesday to break above 0.70 for the first time since June 2015. The pair has been rising in an ascending channel since late January, pulling the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average in the process. Today’s rally has taken prices sharply above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-August 2015 downleg from 0.7743 to 0.6140, further strengthening the bullish bias. Looking at the momentum indicators, RSI is nearing overbought territory [..]
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US oil futures plunged to a one-week low of 37.59 on Monday after major oil producers failed to agree on a production freeze. Prices quickly rebounded though to briefly peak at 39.52 but later settled just below 39 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 27.54 (January 20) to 42.47 (March 18). Today’s drop has eroded oil’s positive bias when prices were trading above the 200-day moving average. However, failure to break above the March 18 high [..]
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EURUSD reversed lower after reaching the highest level in six months last week, when it touched 1.1463. Prices found support at 1.1233 – which is around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0520 to 1.1463 upleg (December 2015 to April 2016 rise). RSI has fallen to test the 50 level, suggesting the stronger downside momentum. The break below the key 1.13 level which coincides with the 21-day moving average, strengthened the bearish view. Failure to close above 1.13 would [..]
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GBPUSD has been in a downtrend since mid-2015 and reached the lowest since March 2009 at $1.3834 on February 29 this year. Since then the market has stabilized in a range between $1.4040 and $1.4510. The risk is tilted to the downside though as RSI has fallen below 50 and entered bearish territory. Also, the market has failed to break above the daily Ichimoku cloud after several attempts. Rejection of the cloud adds to the underlying bearish market structure. Meanwhile, [..]
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