FX Daily Outlook| 04-08-16
Posted on August 4, 2016 at 8:40 am GMT[..]
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EURGBP has been maintaining a neutral bias in the short term after the rally from 0.7600 to 0.8627 fizzled out. Prices have been pivoting around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8384) of this upleg from June 24 to July 6. Key support lies at the major 0.8300 psychological level and as long as this holds, then the neutral bias will continue. A break above the July 6 peak of 0.8627 would give further upside conviction for a resumption of the [..]
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GBPUSD staged a strong rally on Tuesday to rise above the key 1.3300 level. After peaking at 1.3364, the market lost steam and upside momentum petered out. Consequently prices began falling towards 1.3300, falling through it in early European session trading today. In the medium term, the market maintains a neutral bias after stabilizing from the post-Brexit drop. The range is between 1.3050 and 1.3500. A break out of the lower range below support at 1.3050 would open the way [..]
NZDUSD rallied sharply to 2½–week highs today, breaking above 0.7250 on increased upside momentum. This takes the total gains over the past week to 3.5%. The near-term bias is bullish with the MACD histogram reverting back above zero, though the stochastics are already deep in overbought territory, suggesting the current positive momentum could soon run out of steam. If prices continue to head higher, the 0.73 level comes in focus as the next key resistance level. However, if the pair [..]
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WTI oil fell below the key $40 a barrel level on Monday for the first time since April. The break below the 200-day moving average accelerated the decline. Prices have stabilized today just above $40 but the bias remains to the downside. RSI is trending down and is in bearish territory but as it is approaching oversold levels at 30, there could be some consolidation in the near term. Just below the $40 level lies the 50% Fibonacci retracement level [..]
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USDJPY has shifted its outlook from neutral to bearish after Friday’s big drop back below the key 105.00 level to fall through another key level at 102.00. The market appears to have stabilized just above 102.00 but with RSI being below 50 in bearish territory, there is scope for further downside. The next target comes in at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upleg from 99.398 to 107.48, at 101.57. A deeper decline would see a retest of the July [..]
WTI oil futures continue to extend lower today, dipping below the key $41 a barrel level. The outlook is bearish as a falling RSI below 50 supports further downside momentum. Prices are at a critical level, testing the 200-day moving average at the $41 mark. It provided support yesterday but if there is a close below it today this would open the way for a fall towards $38.76. This level is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upleg from $35.24 [..]
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