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Technical Analysis – US oil futures in consolidation mode; outlook neutral

Posted on September 22, 2015 at 2:03 pm GMT

US oil futures have been consolidating since the late August rally that saw prices peaking at 49.29 came to a halt. Prices have been moving in a range of between 49.29 and 43.20 for much of the past month and subsequently moving into the downward sloping Ichimoku cloud. The current neutral bias is likely to continue in the near and medium term as RSI fluctuates around 50 and the cloud begins to move sideways. Immediate resistance is provided by the [..]

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Technical Analysis – US oil futures unable to hold above 50-day MA; bias is neutral

Posted on September 2, 2015 at 1:23 pm GMT

US oil futures are attempting another rally on Wednesday after tumbling 8% on Tuesday. Prices met resistance around the 50-day moving average after struggling to rise much above it in the previous two days. Medium-term outlook remains bearish but the near term bias is looking mixed as RSI has tipped upwards above 50 after yesterday’s slide, indicating a small gain in momentum. However, the %K line of the stochastic oscillator has reversed and dipped back below overbought territory after a [..]

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China manufacturing activity continues to slow; official PMI at 3-year low

Posted on September 1, 2015 at 10:55 am GMT

The official manufacturing gauge in China slipped below 50 in August for the first time since February to a three-year low. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, in-line with estimates and down from July’s reading of 50.0. The service sector performed better with the non-manufacturing PMI showing expansion at 53.4 but at the slowest rate since May. Also released on Tuesday were the final readings of the Caixin PMI figures for August. The manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 47.3 [..]

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European Session – Euro holds above 1.10 as Greece and creditors reach deal on third bailout

Posted on August 11, 2015 at 2:25 pm GMT

The euro moved higher during the course of the day as Greece and its creditors announced that they had agreed on the new bailout terms. The Greek Finance Ministry said that only ‘two or three small issues’ remain to be resolved and the final size of the bailout would amount to €85 billion over three years, of which €10 billion would be used to recapitalize Greek banks. Some of the main sticking points such as the primary surplus targets appear [..]

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Technical Analysis – US Oil looks set to challenge 7-year low of $42

Posted on August 11, 2015 at 8:30 am GMT

While the price of oil had a particularly positive second quarter this year, its failure to clear the 60-62 dollars per barrel area led to a vicious reversal from late June to early August, which could lead to a retest of the 7-year low below $43. The price of oil is particularly significant for commodity-sensitive currencies and especially the currencies of major oil producers such as Norway, Russia, Canada and Mexico. Price action has clearly been bearish as the Tenkan-sen [..]

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Asian Session – Dollar gains on Fed official comments supporting September rate rise

Posted on August 5, 2015 at 8:20 am GMT

The dollar index rose back above 98 to near April highs in late US trading on Tuesday. The US currency was boosted by comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart who said in an interview for the Wall Street Journal that it would require significant deterioration of the US economy to convince him not to hike rates in September. The dollar had started Tuesday on a softer note and investors were unconvinced from better-than-expected factory orders on signs of underlying [..]

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European Session – Oil rebound helps commodity currencies; dollar falls on factory orders

Posted on August 4, 2015 at 2:29 pm GMT

Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after falling to a 6-month low on Monday as the global supply glut weighed on prices. Brent crude futures fell below $50 a barrel for the first time since January, but a steady recovery on Tuesday helped it climb by 1.6% to $50.30 in late European session. Other commodity prices such as copper and gold were boosted from the higher oil prices and a muted dollar. Copper prices were 1% higher at $237, while gold [..]

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