oil

Technical Analysis – Oil at $40 a barrel level looks bearish and set to challenge 6 ½ year low

Posted on December 3, 2015 at 9:21 am GMT

The price of US oil blend hit a fresh 3-month low the previous day as it briefly dipped below $40 a barrel. It has since recovered above 40, but the outlook remains bearish. Oil is looking to take out the 37.75 low it made in late August, which would mark oil’s lowest point since February 2009 (when stock markets around the world also made a low in the wake of the global financial crisis). The indicators are all pointing to [..]

Asian Session – Dollar eases after touching 8-month high; aussie slides on weak capex

Posted on November 26, 2015 at 12:21 pm GMT

The US dollar climbed to an 8-month high on Wednesday after a set of key economic indicators came in broadly positive, reiterating expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, peaked at 100.17 – the highest level since March. US durable goods orders data out yesterday rose more than expected by 3.0% month-on-month in October. Initial weekly jobless claims were also [..]

Asian Session – Oil up on geopolitical concerns but dollar flat on mixed data

Posted on November 26, 2015 at 12:15 pm GMT

Increased tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $43 a barrel today, extending Tuesday’s gains. Geopolitical risks were heightened yesterday after Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet over the Syrian border, raising fears that the incident could escalate to a more serious confrontation between Russia and NATO. US oil futures jumped over 2.5% on Tuesday and were up 0.4% at $43.05 in today’s Asian session. Commodities such as copper and gold also advanced higher on the geopolitical concerns. [..]

European Session – Euro decline paused by PMI data, oil rebounds on Saudi Arabia’s pledge to stabilize prices

Posted on November 23, 2015 at 3:47 pm GMT

US dollar strength remains across the board due to continuing market expectations of a Fed rate hike in December. However the euro managed to trim some losses after better-than-expected Eurozone PMI data today. The euro recovered against the dollar after testing the key 1.0600 level and hit a session high of 1.0643 after the latest Markit flash PMI reading of the composite PMI showed a surprise uptick in Eurozone activity in November. The index rose to a 4½-year high of [..]

European Session – Euro holds above 1.07, dollar shrugs off weak US retail sales

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 3:14 pm GMT

The euro was on course to end the week higher against the dollar after a rally to above 1.08 yesterday but gains were given back today after Eurozone GDP data which confirmed sluggish growth activity in the region during the third quarter. The overall flash estimate rose 0.3% in the three months through September, down from the 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. The consensus was for a 0.4% growth forecast. Germany also reported softer growth as its Q3 GDP [..]

Positioning may be a problem for dollar bulls for remainder of year; oil eyes August low

Posted on November 13, 2015 at 2:06 pm GMT

Euro – dollar has been under intense pressure in recent weeks after it was unveiled that the Federal Reserve was planning to raise interest rates during its December meeting, while the European Central Bank was planning to add to its stimulus measures in the same month. Specifically, the euro came tumbling down from its 1.1494 peak (not far from its high for the year) in mid-October to below the 1.07 level on November 10th. During this period, Fed Governors have [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil futures hold above cloud; outlook neutral

Posted on November 3, 2015 at 2:11 pm GMT

US oil futures held within its four-day trading range after moving above the Ichimoku cloud following the strong rally seen on October 28. RSI remains neutral just above 50 but the stochastics are in overbought territory, indicating the current momentum is unlikely to hold in the near term. Prices have found support from the 50-day moving average, while the kijun-sen line is providing resistance at 46.74. In the broader picture, prices would need to challenge the 50% of the Fibonacci [..]

Asian Session – Dollar extends gains after strong data; Euro down on ECB easing expectations

Posted on October 16, 2015 at 7:21 am GMT

The dollar extended yesterdays’ rally at the start of today’s Asian trading but fell back in late Asian session. Stronger-than-expected inflation and jobless claims data on Thursday boosted the dollar, calming fears about the strength of the US economy and raising the prospect of the Fed hiking interest rates this year. Adding to the dollar’s bullish sentiment were comments by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. Speaking at an event in New York, Mester said she believes the US economy can [..]

FX Daily Otlook

Posted on October 12, 2015 at 8:17 am GMT

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Asian Session – Equities and commodities extend rally as dollar retreats

Posted on October 12, 2015 at 7:40 am GMT

Asian equities rose sharply on Monday as energy and commodity linked shares were boosted by the recovery in oil and commodity prices. Shares in China were 3.5% higher after the People’s Bank of China expanded a pilot scheme to inject liquidity into the banking system. Market sentiment was also lifted on reports that the PBOC’s deputy governor was quoted as saying that the stock market correction is “almost over”. In the currency markets, the dollar extended Friday’s losses on fading [..]

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