oil

European Session – Oil breaches $50 a barrel; sterling tests $1.46

Posted on June 7, 2016 at 2:37 pm GMT

It was a relatively quiet trading session, mainly due to the lack of major market moving data today. The US dollar was lower against most of its major counterparts like the euro and the pound and was also soft against the Canadian and Australian dollars. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Monday failed to show a repetition of her previously communicated call for a rate hike in the ‘coming months’, so this led to a move away from the greenback. European [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil neutral after rally to $50

Posted on June 7, 2016 at 7:41 am GMT

US oil futures have rallied sharply from the April low of 35.24 to reach a high of 50.19 on May 26. In the bigger picture the trend is bullish and the crossing of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average supports this view. However, the short term outlook is neutral since prices have failed to break above the 50.19 high and the market has been consolidating gains in the past three weeks. RSI is in bullish territory but [..]

European Session – Euro falls after ECB; oil tumbles after OPEC fails to cap oil output

Posted on June 2, 2016 at 3:01 pm GMT

The early part of the European session was relatively quiet as markets geared up for the more important events later in the day that included the European Central Bank meeting and Draghi press conference, ADP payrolls, US jobless claims and the OPEC meeting. The euro fell after the ECB made only marginal upward adjustments to its inflation projections. The Bank kept its main interest rate unchanged in negative territory, as was widely expected. The euro started to fall during the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar consolidates ahead of Yellen; oil slips back below $50

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 7:55 am GMT

Major currencies were range-bound on Friday as broadly positive US data yesterday failed to give markets any direction. Traders are instead looking to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance later today for further clues on the Fed’s intentions at the June policy meeting. Yellen is due to participate in a discussion on interest rates at Harvard University. In the meantime, there were more hawkish comments from Fed policymakers as Washington DC Fed President Jerome Powell said on Thursday that another rate [..]

European Session – Oil above $50 a barrel while loonie outperforms, pound hits 4-month high

Posted on May 26, 2016 at 3:00 pm GMT

The US dollar was weaker versus most G10 currencies today as risk appetite was back in the markets. Commodities were firmer due to the pro-risk bias. The Canadian dollar outperformed on oil gains and also after the Bank of Canada held interest rates on Wednesday. Data that was in focus today was the second estimate of UK GDP and then out of the US there were jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales. The euro strengthened against the [..]

Asian Session – Dollar pares sharp gains; Oil approaching $50 at 7-week high

Posted on May 25, 2016 at 8:33 am GMT

The US dollar pared some of yesterday’s sharp gains when it rose on the back of solid US housing data. The dollar index climbed to a two-month high of 95.66 at the start of today’s Asian trading before easing to around 95.55 in late session. Strong gains in European and US equities on Tuesday helped risk appetite and Asian equities were also in positive territory today. The yen fell back as risk aversion faded but the currency was also weighed [..]

FX Daily Outlook| 24-05-16

Posted on May 24, 2016 at 8:46 am GMT

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Asian Session – Dollar steady as yen holds on to gains; commodity currencies slip

Posted on May 24, 2016 at 8:07 am GMT

Commodity-linked currencies slipped in Asian trading on Tuesday as commodity prices were weighed down by the strong dollar. The Australian dollar was one of the worst performers as it was further weighed by comments by the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens earlier today. Speaking in Sydney, Stevens reiterated the central bank’s commitment to the inflation target band of 2-3%, adding that inflation in Australia is currently “a bit too low”. The comments increased the prospects of further rate cuts, sending the [..]

European Session – Dollar falls after US inflation data, focus turns to FOMC minutes

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:50 pm GMT

The main focus of the currency markets today was on inflation data from major economies, the UK and the US. For the UK, headline inflation came in at 0.3% year-on-year in April versus 0.5% eyed. This was well below the Bank of England’s 2% target suggesting that interest rates will likely remain stationary for the foreseeable future. Sterling dipped after the weak inflation data to $1.4453, after having risen to as high as $1.4523 earlier in the session, supported by [..]

Crude oil rally boosts risk assets, commodity currencies

Posted on May 17, 2016 at 2:11 pm GMT

It has been a remarkable year for crude oil and market participants that specialize in this particular market. Having bottomed at just below $28 a barrel in January (a near 13-year low), a mere 4 months later the price has rallied by more than 70% from that low. Interestingly, the US equity benchmark the S&P 500 also made a low on the day that oil bottomed, although that particular level was also retested in early February for US equities. This [..]

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