FX Daily Outlook | 16-05-17
Posted on May 16, 2017 at 8:38 am GMT[..]
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The dollar index fell to a one week low as the greenback continued to weaken against a basket of currencies, following a series of soft US data recently, as well as domestic politics. The euro extended its rally, while oil prices held onto recent gains. The dollar came under pressure yesterday after a surprisingly soft US manufacturing report from the New York Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, an article in the Washington Post that US President Donald Trump divulged highly classified information [..]
The dollar was broadly weaker amid softer US Treasury yields in the wake of a series of disappointing US economic data. The Canadian dollar was one of the top performing major currencies today, reflecting firmer crude oil prices. Hopes of extending an OPEC production cut deal helped boost the US oil benchmark by 3%. The dollar index extended losses in the European session, driven lower by weaker US economic data. Following Friday’s soft retail sales and CPI releases, the US Empire [..]
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The dollar came under pressure against most major counterparts but rose against the yen. Oil prices jumped higher on expectations that oil production cuts will be extended to next year. The yen was only briefly boosted by geopolitical concerns after news of another North Korean missile test over the weekend. On the economic data front, China released industrial production and investment figures for April, which were disappointing. But markets shrugged off the weak numbers to focus on China’s plan to [..]
US Treasury yields dropped following disappointing US data releases, which weighed on the dollar. The euro was one of the best performers. US retail sales fell short of analysts’ estimates and consumer price growth slowed in April. The weak data raised concerns that the Fed may not stick to its 3-rate hikes this year, especially since today’s data come after weak first quarter growth. Fed fund futures are now showing a less than 50% probability of the Fed raising rates [..]
Gold has made a recovery after reaching a low of 1214.17 on May 9. The market had reached oversold levels as indicated by the RSI which fell to 30 before turning back up. Gold prices rebounded to come close to 1230. This is an important resistance since it is a psychological level and round number, as well as a Fibonacci. It is the 38.2 retracement of the rise from 1122.66 to the 5-1/2 month high of 1295.38. (December 2016 to [..]
The pound fell after the Bank of England announced its latest decision on monetary policy and also released an update of its inflation projections, downgrading longer-term forecasts. The yen was broadly stronger, while the euro dipped further. Gold and oil gained. Sterling began falling ahead of the BoE decision, after disappointing UK data which showed industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in March, reflecting weaker manufacturing, which dropped by a larger-than-expected 0.6% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in February. Meanwhile, the UK reported a larger-than-forecast [..]
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The New Zealand dollar under-performed after a neutral RBNZ policy outlook. Sterling was steady ahead of the Bank of England meeting and the release of the BOE quarterly inflation report. The kiwi tumbled to an 11-month low against the greenback as the RBNZ noted a lack of inflation pressure in the economy and indicated it would keep rates low for an extended period of time. The Bank left rates at 1.75%, which was widely expected, but the markets were hoping [..]
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