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Investment Theme – Fed rate hike path supports broader trend of dollar strength

Posted on May 25, 2017 at 2:48 pm GMT

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting that were released on Wednesday indicated that the US central bank remained on track for more rate increases this year. Most FOMC members thought it was appropriate to hike soon. This was interpreted as meaning a move by the Fed could come as early as the June policy meeting. While this should be positive for the dollar, the market reaction was to sell off the greenback and US Treasury yields fell [..]

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Forex Market Review (Asian Session) – Dollar lags after Fed minutes; loonie hits new month high; oil gains ahead of OPEC

Posted on May 25, 2017 at 7:26 am GMT

The US dollar was heavy after the FOMC minutes, while the Canadian dollar outperformed across the board on an upbeat Bank of Canada. Oil prices extended gains ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna today. The minutes from the Fed’s May policy meeting showed some caution, despite most FOMC members indicating that another interest rate increase would be appropriate soon. The probability of a rate hike at the June FOMC meeting remains quite high – above 80% – but the [..]

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Forex Market Review (European Session) – Loonie gains after BOC; greenback sidelined ahead of FOMC minutes

Posted on May 24, 2017 at 3:18 pm GMT

The Canadian dollar was one of the best performing major currencies today after it gained on an upbeat Bank of Canada. The BOC held its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% as expected but its statement was more positive overall. It said that recent domestic economic data have been encouraging and inflation was broadly in line with expectations. After trading mostly flat for most of the day, the USD / CAD tumbled on the BOC announcement, dropping below the key $1.3500 [..]

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Forex Market Review (Asian Session) – Aussie weakens after China downgrade; oil rises ahead of OPEC

Posted on May 24, 2017 at 7:49 am GMT

The aussie reacted negatively to Moody’s downgrade of China’s rating to A1 from Aa3, amid concerns over rising debt and slowing economic growth. China is a major trading partner for Australia and so the news had the most impact on the currency which fell over 0.5% against the greenback to reach $0.7441 during the Asian session, reversing a three-day advance. Disappointing Australian construction data also weighed on the aussie. The US dollar bounced back and pulled away from recent lows of more [..]

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Forex Market Review (European Session) – Pound hits 2-month low versus euro amid strong Eurozone data and Manchester blast; loonie at 1-month high

Posted on May 23, 2017 at 2:54 pm GMT

The euro held near six-month highs against the dollar after strong Eurozone PMI data. Sterling remained under pressure due to the events in Manchester and following disappointing data related to the UK retail sector. The US dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies. The loonie hit a one-month high. The euro gained on the back of strong Eurozone and German PMI data, providing encouraging news for the European Central Bank which is expected to start unwinding its unprecedented [..]

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Technical Analysis – Gold bullish above 200-day moving average

Posted on May 23, 2017 at 8:26 am GMT

Gold maintains a bullish outlook after the market carved out higher highs and higher lows since December 2016. The uptrend from the 1122.66 low to the 6-month high of 1295.38 hit on April 17 is still in progress. Prices are now above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of this uptrend, and this Fibonacci will act as immediate support just under 1255. The crossover of the 50-day moving average with the 200-day MA on May 17 supports a bullish bias. The [..]

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Forex Market Review (Asian Session) – Sterling briefly impacted by Manchester blast; gold benefits from safe haven flows

Posted on May 23, 2017 at 7:37 am GMT

Risk appetite was dampened after news of the bomb blast in Manchester that killed more than twenty people late on Monday night. Sterling weakened immediately after the reports, while safe haven assets like the yen and gold strengthened. An uncertain political climate in the US weighed on the dollar. The pound dropped against the yen and the Australian dollar during Asian trading. It was impacted less against the greenback and the euro. Pound / yen fell half a percent from [..]

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Forex Market Review (European Session) – Euro boosted to new 6-month highs on Merkel remarks; sterling regains $1.30

Posted on May 22, 2017 at 2:46 pm GMT

There were some notable moves in the currency markets despite an absence of major economic data releases during the session. The euro rallied across the board on German Chancellor’s views on the weak euro. Sterling challenged the key $1.3000 level on Brexit concerns and UK election polls. The dollar index slipped to fresh year-to-date lows. The euro was one of the best major performing currencies after it rose on headlines showing the Merkel said the euro was too weak. Talking [..]

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