forex

US Open Note – Dollar back to gains despite calm day; euro steady

Posted on February 8, 2021 at 2:05 pm GMT

Dollar records some gains; US stocks at record highs In a quiet day, the major theme is the inflation expectations in the US that continue to rise. Treasury Secretary Yellen is asking for a larger stimulus package to bring the economy back to full employment. The dollar seems ready to resume its recovery. The US dollar index is moving marginally up, while dollar/yen is approaching the 105.70 level again, hitting the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). In the stock market, an index tracking global bourses met another all-time [..]

US Open Note – Dollar pauses its rally after NFP; oil still up

Posted on February 5, 2021 at 2:05 pm GMT

Dollar steady after NFP report The US dollar lost some ground after the publication of the non-farm payrolls report but is still steady today around 105.50 against the yen, as there’s a good argument that the numbers make a big stimulus package more likely. The US dollar index is moving lower, while US stocks are recording new highs. The US economy added 49K jobs in January, compared to market expectations of a 50K rise and -227K previously, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.7% in the preceding month. US President Joe [..]

US Open Note – Dollar keeps heading higher; pound back to gains after BoE decision

Posted on February 4, 2021 at 1:48 pm GMT

Pound return to gains after BoE decision; Eurozone retail sales come up The key driver of the day is the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. The pound jumped higher, returning above 1.3650 versus the US dollar, as the BoE left its bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1% and its bond-buying program unaltered during its meeting. The crucial point is that the BoE said that its actions should not be taken as a signal that negative rates are coming and that has seen a push back [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDNZD reverses lower after reaching 2-year high

Posted on September 23, 2020 at 3:15 pm GMT

AUDNZD hit a two-year peak in August near 1.1140, but met fierce resistance and has been grinding lower since then. While the short-term picture seems negative, the broader uptrend that started in March remains in place as long as the price holds above 1.0565 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Momentum-oscillators echo the cautiously negative picture in the short-run. The RSI is below 50 and is pointing down, while the MACD is moving deeper into its negative territory. If [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY turns lower amid risk aversion, but stays in uptrend

Posted on September 23, 2020 at 9:31 am GMT

AUDJPY has been losing ground in September, pressured by a general deterioration in market sentiment. The pair has crossed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since April, which is worrisome, but not enough to shatter the broader bullish picture. The daily price structure still consists of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the trend cautiously positive. A move below 72.70 and the 200-day SMA is required to change that. Short-term oscillators echo the latest move [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY capped by recent highs, uptrend pauses

Posted on August 20, 2020 at 11:14 am GMT

AUDJPY has been trading in a narrow sideways range for a month now, between 76.80 and 74.70. A break in either direction is needed to reveal the pair’s short-term tendency, though in the bigger picture, only a decisive move below 72.70 would call into question the five-month uptrend. Short-term oscillators detect fading upside momentum and imply that the pair could test the lower bound of its recent range soon. The RSI is pointing down and looks ready to cross [..]

BoC meeting: With a little anxiety from the US – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 14, 2020 at 10:03 am GMT

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will wrap up its policy meeting at 14:00 GMT Wednesday, and while no action is expected, the accompanying statement could still be crucial. Even though the Canadian economy is healing, the resurgence of infections in the US is scary given Canada’s exposure to America, and might lead policymakers to strengthen their easing bias. If so, that would argue for a negative reaction in the loonie. Longer term though, the stage seems set for a powerful [..]

Loonie left behind in risk rally, can jobs data help? – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 8, 2020 at 2:01 pm GMT

The Canadian dollar has underperformed other G10 commodity currencies lately, eating the dust of the aussie and the kiwi since markets bottomed in March, despite a powerful rally in oil prices. This might reflect uncertainties emanating from the US, which Canada’s economy is highly exposed to, and the threat of new tariffs. The upcoming jobs data at 12:30 GMT Friday could finally bring some good news, though the loonie’s broader direction in the coming weeks will depend mostly on risk [..]

Technical Analysis – EURAUD posts ‘death cross’, yet remains quiet

Posted on July 1, 2020 at 9:47 am GMT

EURAUD recently recorded a so-called death cross, meaning that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 200-day one, which is a negative trend signal. That being said, the pair continues to trade very quietly between 1.6530 and 1.6020 since early June, suggesting that the very short-term outlook looks neutral, even if the broader one is negative. Short-term oscillators paint a mildly bearish picture, suggesting that the next move may be lower. The RSI is below 50 already and [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCHF moves sideways, but negative trend still in play

Posted on July 1, 2020 at 7:04 am GMT

USDCHF has been consolidating in recent weeks, staying confined within a narrow sideways range between 0.9550 and 0.9420 since mid-June. Nonetheless, the broader price structure still consists of lower peaks and lower troughs, with the pair also trading below a downtrend line drawn from the peaks of March. Short term momentum oscillators are near their neutral levels, echoing the recent lack of direction. The RSI is just below 50 and seems to have flatlined, while the MACD is basically at [..]

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