Fibonacci

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD gains capped by 100-DMA

Posted on June 6, 2016 at 9:46 am GMT

AUDUSD ended the week on Friday with a 2.5% gain but is being capped by the 100-day moving average after meeting resistance just below 0.7370. Momentum indicators are mixed with the stochastics continuing to rise, suggesting there is still some upside momentum despite today’s dip. However, further gains in the near term are likely to be limited as the %K line has already crossed into overbought territory. The MACD is still in negative territory, underlining the broader negative outlook for [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD finds resistance at 50-DMA after two-day rally

Posted on June 2, 2016 at 9:57 am GMT

NZDUSD has seen a partial reversal of the January-April uptrend that took prices from 0.6346 to 0.7053. It has now retraced 38.2% of this upleg, having rebounded from sharper losses that drove the pair below the 50% Fibonacci level. Prices have been capped by the 50-day moving average at around 0.6830 for the past two days as the upside momentum from earlier in the week has started to fade. RSI has already dipped back towards neutral at 50, while the [..]

Technical Analysis – EURGBP looking increasingly bearish as it tests 0.76

Posted on May 25, 2016 at 9:41 am GMT

EURGBP hit a near 4-month low of 0.7601 earlier today as momentum turns increasingly bearish for the pair. RSI has recovered slightly after hitting oversold level but the MACD chart points to further downwards pressure to come for EURGBP in the near term. Prices have retraced about 44% of the November-April upleg from 0.6982 to 0.8116 and further downside moves would take the pair towards the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.7550. A break below this level would threaten the longer-term [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPAUD rally stalls below 1.98 but bias remains positive

Posted on May 12, 2016 at 10:46 am GMT

GBPAUD has made impressive gains of almost 8% in the past three weeks with the rally coming to a pause at 1.9736 on Tuesday. The pair has retraced around 33.5% of the long-term downtrend that started in August 2015 and almost 61.8% of the latest downleg from 2.0662 to 1.8292. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as a resistance level around 1.9750. Momentum indicators such as the RSI and the MACD remain strongly bullish so further gains are possible [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY turns bearish again after sliding below 50-DMA

Posted on April 29, 2016 at 8:46 am GMT

AUDJPY has fallen over 5% in the past three days with the current sell-off taking prices from above the 200-day moving average to sharply below the 50-day moving average. The near-term bias has turned from positive to negative. This is underlined by the downward sloping RSI, which has yet to approach oversold territory, indicating there is scope for further losses. The nearest support is likely to come from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 90.71 to 77.57. [..]

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD looking bullish above 0.70

Posted on April 19, 2016 at 1:24 pm GMT

NZDUSD jumped to a 10-month high on Tuesday to break above 0.70 for the first time since June 2015. The pair has been rising in an ascending channel since late January, pulling the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average in the process. Today’s rally has taken prices sharply above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-August 2015 downleg from 0.7743 to 0.6140, further strengthening the bullish bias. Looking at the momentum indicators, RSI is nearing overbought territory [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil futures rebound from 1-wk lows

Posted on April 18, 2016 at 12:44 pm GMT

US oil futures plunged to a one-week low of 37.59 on Monday after major oil producers failed to agree on a production freeze. Prices quickly rebounded though to briefly peak at 39.52 but later settled just below 39 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 27.54 (January 20) to 42.47 (March 18). Today’s drop has eroded oil’s positive bias when prices were trading above the 200-day moving average. However, failure to break above the March 18 high [..]

Technical Analysis – US oil futures descend towards 50-DMA

Posted on April 4, 2016 at 7:31 am GMT

US oil futures opened lower on Monday to extend their losses to a ninth straight day. Oil has been heading lower since peaking at 42.47 on March 18, which was a 54% rally from the January low of 27.54. Prices have fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March upleg and the next support level is likely to come at the 50% Fibonacci level at 35.0. This is also where the 50-day moving average is converging. A break [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains positive bias in ascending channel

Posted on April 1, 2016 at 8:34 am GMT

EURUSD has retraced about 75% of the downtrend from the August 2015 high of 1.1713 to the December 2015 low of 1.0521 after crossing above the 1.14 handle on Thursday. The pair has been setting higher highs and higher lows since the December trough to move in an ascending channel. The 50-day moving average recently crossed above the 200-day moving average in what is a bullish signal but the flatlining 200-day moving average puts into question the strength of the [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDJPY holds on to positive bias above cloud

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 3:05 pm GMT

AUDJPY has held on to its recent gains that saw it rallying above the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The pair has retraced a little more than 50% of the December-February downtrend from 90.71 to 77.57. The 11% rally from the 3½ year-low of 77.57 to the March 14 high 86.40 has shifted the near term bias to a positive one. Both the RSI and the MACD are still in positive territory, though on slightly weakened momentum. The [..]

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