Fibonacci

Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures turn bearish below 50-DMA

Posted on July 14, 2016 at 9:16 am GMT

WTI oil futures continue to face downwards pressure today despite some upside moves during the day. RSI is flat below 50, while the MACD is trending down in negative territory. The near-term bias is therefore bearish as the futures go into a corrective phase following a strong rally in the first half of the year. Prices found support at 44.50 yesterday and this remains the immediate support level. A drop below this level would take prices towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level of [..]

FX Daily Outlook| 07-07-16

Posted on July 7, 2016 at 9:47 am GMT

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Technical Analysis – USDCAD consolidates after halting downtrend

Posted on July 7, 2016 at 9:04 am GMT

USDCAD has been consolidating since early May after breaking out of the downward trending channel. The downleg from 1.4689 to 1.2460 took prices below the 200-day moving average but with the recent move sideways, the medium-term outlook is looking increasingly neutral. The near-term bias is also neutral with the MACD flattening out around 0. The 23.6% Fibonacci level of the January-May downtrend capped prices at around 1.2980 earlier today. This is also where the 100-day moving average is converging, while [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD in bearish bias but maintains longer-term neutral outlook

Posted on July 6, 2016 at 9:21 am GMT

EURUSD lost the 1.11 handle again as prices reversed sharply yesterday, bringing to a halt the partial rebound from after the June 24 slump. The negative bias is supported by today’s bearish cross of the %K and %D lines of the stochastic oscillator. Before the sell-off started yesterday, prices had met resistance at around 1.1180, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the May 3 – June 24 downleg from 1.1615 to 1.0910. There was further resistance today at the [..]

Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures struggle to hold onto 50-day moving average

Posted on June 28, 2016 at 10:27 am GMT

WTI oil futures closed below the 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time since February but managed to recover above it in European trading today. The 50-day moving average has been broadly following oil’s upward trend path since March and the drop below it suggests a weakening of the bullish bias. RSI falling below 50 is another indication of the current weakened momentum. Prices found support yesterday just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-June upleg [..]

Technical Analysis – UK 100 stock index futures sharply reverses upside bias

Posted on June 24, 2016 at 3:15 pm GMT

The UK 100 stock index futures sharply reversed their week-long rally to hit a 4½-month low of 5668.0 earlier today. This represents a drop of 11.35% from yesterday’s close and is just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-June upleg from 5446.3 to 6394.0. Today’s plunge took the index back below the 50-day moving average, having only recently recovered above it. RSI has wiped out the positive momentum to fall just below 50, suggesting a shift in the [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD capped by 200-DMA; bias still positive

Posted on June 22, 2016 at 10:22 am GMT

GBPUSD has been capped by the 200-day moving average and has been hovering around it since Monday following the 5% rally from last Thursday’s low of 1.4012. The pair has consistently met resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December to February downleg from 1.5239 to 1.3835. The positive momentum generated by the rally is holding, with RSI comfortably above 50 and the MACD histogram rising above 0. However, prices have consistently struggled to rise significantly above the [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold rally pauses but holds positive bias

Posted on June 14, 2016 at 10:08 am GMT

Gold has retraced almost 80% of the May decline from its year-to-date high of 1303.6 to 1199.64, finding resistance around the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Prices have rallied by around 7% from the May 30 low of 1199.64, shifting the near-term bias back to positive. Looking at the momentum indicators, RSI has dipped slightly downwards after today’s pause but remains firmly in positive territory. The MACD also suggests there is scope for further gains with the histogram rising back above 0 [..]

Technical Analysis – GBPAUD turns bearish, dropping below moving averages

Posted on June 13, 2016 at 1:32 pm GMT

GBPAUD hit a one-month low of 1.9065 earlier today but has since rebounded back above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The pair has now retraced just less than 61.8% of the April-May upleg from 1.8292 to 2.0533, dropping below the moving averages and shifting the bias to negative in the process. The 61.8% Fibonacci level at around 1.9145 is the immediate support area for prices. But holding above this support may prove difficult as RSI is fast approaching oversold levels and [..]

Technical Analysis – USDCAD turns bearish after breaching 1.28 and 50MA

Posted on June 8, 2016 at 7:39 am GMT

USDCAD extended losses for a fourth day on Wednesday, further retracing the upleg from 1.2460 to 1.3187. The market is now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2738. This is an important support level which if broken to the downside, would accelerate a further decline towards the key 1.2600 level. RSI is trending down and is in bearish territory below 50, suggesting there is risk of further downside. If the pair continues on its downside below 1.2600, there is [..]

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