Fibonacci

Technical Analysis – USDCHF turns bearish after break below 200-day moving average

Posted on November 2, 2016 at 8:08 am GMT

USDCHF extends its decline from parity and the near-term outlook has turned very bearish after breaking below the 200-day moving average. After a strong rally from the September 29 low of 0.9638, USDCHF peaked near 1.0000 on October 25 before reversing back down. Following several tests of support at 0.9913 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.9638 – 1.0000 upleg), prices fell to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.9860. A 170-point drop on Tuesday led to the market retracing [..]

Technical Analysis – USDJPY stays in range, capped by 50-day moving average

Posted on September 19, 2016 at 8:01 am GMT

USDJPY continues to trade in a range, thus keeping a neutral bias for the short term. After rebounding from the 100 yen area on August 26, the pair rose to briefly peak above the 104 yen level. It reached a high of 104.31 on September 2. Since then, the market has pulled back and is now pivoting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (102.20) of the recent August to September rise. The RSI is flat and hugging the 50 level, which [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD neutral and stuck below key 1.1300 level

Posted on September 16, 2016 at 7:27 am GMT

For the past two weeks, EURUSD has been neutral but the underlying market structure is bullish in the medium term, as the pair rose from 1.0951 (July 25) to 1.1365 (August 18) and is now consolidating this move. Following a 50% retracement of this upleg, the pair found support at the 50-day and 200-day moving average (around 1.1130). Prices subsequently bounced higher but found strong resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1268. The near term bias is now [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD consolidates after big rally

Posted on September 7, 2016 at 7:16 am GMT

EURUSD intra-day bias is neutral and the 4-hour momentum indicators have levelled off, indicating that consolidation is likely after a big gain on Tuesday. Prices rose over 100 pips, bringing EURUSD back above the key 1.1200 level. There is still a possibility for more upside momentum as long as the RSI and stochastic indicators remain positive. Looking at the Daily Chart below: To the upside resistance will come in at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold remains supported above 1300; MACD warns of weakness ahead

Posted on September 5, 2016 at 5:04 am GMT

Gold staged a bullish rally all year, rising from the December lows of 1047 to reach a multi-year high of 1375 on July 11. The market appears to have peaked at this level and has made lower highs since then, although it remains above the key 1300 level, keeping the near term outlook neutral. This is a strong support level as it coincides with the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1047 to 1375. However, prices have fallen [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bearish below 100-day moving average

Posted on August 30, 2016 at 4:52 am GMT

EURUSD has retraced half of the upleg from 1.0951 to 1.1365 (July 22 low to August 18 high). Prices have found support at the 50% Fibonacci level of this uptrend, which lies at 1.1158. Near term bias remains on the downside and this is highlighted by the fact that RSI has been trending down and has now dipped below 50 to enter bearish territory. EURUSD has scope to fall deeper towards 1.1108, the 61.8 Fibonacci level. Below this support level, [..]

Technical Analysis – EURUSD retains bullish outlook but tests critical 1.13 level

Posted on August 24, 2016 at 8:41 am GMT

The recent rise in EURUSD was rejected at highs of 1.1365 reached on August 18 and since then prices eased lower to test the key 1.1300 level. The upside move from 1.0951 (June 24 low) lost momentum as RSI reached near overbought levels around 70 and then turned back down. Immediate support lies at the August 22 low of 1.1270, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level (retracement of 1.0951 to 1.1365). The medium term outlook for EURUSD is [..]

Technical Analysis – Oil strengthens bearish bias as it tests 200-day MA

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 9:11 am GMT

WTI oil futures continue to extend lower today, dipping below the key $41 a barrel level. The outlook is bearish as a falling RSI below 50 supports further downside momentum. Prices are at a critical level, testing the 200-day moving average at the $41 mark. It provided support yesterday but if there is a close below it today this would open the way for a fall towards $38.76. This level is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upleg from $35.24 [..]

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD capped at 0.7550; struggles to hold to positive bias

Posted on July 28, 2016 at 1:38 pm GMT

AUDUSD headed higher today on increased upside momentum, however its gains were capped just below 0.7550, which has been acting as a key resistance area in recent weeks. This is also the 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July upleg from 0.7144 to 0.7676 and prices are likely to struggle to make significant headway above this level without stronger upside momentum. But with RSI barely above 50, the near-term outlook is looking neutral to positive. AUDUSD would need to [..]

Technical Analysis – Gold stuck in neutral bias as momentum wanes

Posted on July 25, 2016 at 1:33 pm GMT

Gold has slowly drifted lower from its 1¼-year high of 1375 at the start of the month to move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July upleg from 1199.64 to 1375.00. The 23.6% Fibonacci level has proven a key resistance area around 1335 in recent days, with prices struggling to make much headway above this level. Both the RSI and the MACD are pointing to continued waning of momentum, with the RSI dipping just below neutral ground, though [..]

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