FX Daily Outlook | 18-10-16
Posted on October 18, 2016 at 9:33 am GMT[..]
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AUDUSD has had five successive positive trading days which have led the pair to a 2-week high. The short-term outlook according to the Ichimoku analysis is positive as the price has climbed above the cloud and the Tenkan-sen has remained above the Kijun-sen line. The RSI at 60 is also positive and points to possible further gains. Since the end of June, the Ichimoku cloud base has generally supported the price, which shows that the cloud base (currently at 0.7581) [..]
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The big decline that took place from the 0.7700 area down below the 0.7500 level this month has ended with AUDUSD bouncing back up and now finding support at the 200-day moving average at 0.7475. With RSI rising, upside momentum could increase if it breaks above 50, giving scope for the market to extend gains. However, there is resistance at the 50-day moving average at 0.7580 which would likely be strong enough to cap any further advance. AUDUSD is expected [..]
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AUDUSD has reversed almost all of the bounce from the August 31 low of 0.7489 to the September 8 high of 0.7731. This brings the near term bias back to bearish especially after prices fell below the key 0.7600 level and below the 50-day moving average at 0.7582. The RSI has dipped into bearish territory below 50, signaling further downside. The immediate target in the event of a fall in prices lies at 0.7500. But a break below the August [..]
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AUDUSD is retesting the key 0.76 level this week with three successful daily closes above this. The 0.76 level that was previously resistance (tested in June) has now turned into a key support level. Next resistance lies at 0.7685, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downleg from 0.7833 to 0.7144. A break above this would open the way for a test of the April high of 0.7833 (the highest in a year). Alternatively, if support at 0.76 fails, [..]
AUDUSD briefly breached the key 0.75 level on Tuesday to hit a seven-week high of 0.7511. But prices failed to close above this resistance level and are trading below it early on Wednesday. The 0.75 level is also close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 0.7833 to 0.7144 (April to May decline) and lies at 0.7488. This Fibonacci level is a critical level and has been tested before recently with the same result of failing to [..]
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