FX Daily Outlook | 15-05-17
Posted on May 15, 2017 at 8:55 am GMT[..]
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AUDUSD is in a downtrend when looking at the medium-term picture. After hitting a high of 0.7748 on March 21, prices fell in a downward channel and turned bearish after breaking below the 200-day moving average and then below the key 0.7400 level. In the near-term, the bias turned bullish after prices rebounded from the 0.7330 area to break above 0.7400. However, clearer signals are needed in order to see if this move is just a short-term correction or if [..]
The dollar came under pressure against most major counterparts but rose against the yen. Oil prices jumped higher on expectations that oil production cuts will be extended to next year. The yen was only briefly boosted by geopolitical concerns after news of another North Korean missile test over the weekend. On the economic data front, China released industrial production and investment figures for April, which were disappointing. But markets shrugged off the weak numbers to focus on China’s plan to [..]
Inflation data out of the UK, Canada and the Eurozone will be the market’s main focus next week, as will Japanese GDP figures for the first quarter. Important indicators from China will also attract attention, while Australian employment numbers will be on investor’s watch list too. Chinese economic momentum seen easing in April Data out of China will be the highlight at the start of the week as retail sales, industrial output and urban investment figures are released on Monday. [..]
US Treasury yields dropped following disappointing US data releases, which weighed on the dollar. The euro was one of the best performers. US retail sales fell short of analysts’ estimates and consumer price growth slowed in April. The weak data raised concerns that the Fed may not stick to its 3-rate hikes this year, especially since today’s data come after weak first quarter growth. Fed fund futures are now showing a less than 50% probability of the Fed raising rates [..]
Economic data out of China on Wednesday pointed to a slowing down in momentum in the world’s second largest economy. Producer price inflation cooled for a second straight month in April as iron ore and coal prices tumbled further. Surging supplies of steel are creating concerns that domestic demand will not be strong enough to support raw materials prices. Producer prices rose 6.4% year-on-year in April versus a 7.6% increase in March and slightly below the forecast of 6.9%. It was [..]
Major currencies were stuck in tight ranges in Wednesday’s European session as the market lacked fresh impetus in a relatively quiet trading day. The euro was subdued after ECB President Mario Draghi failed to give a clear signal of stimulus withdrawal, while dollar/yen and cable held near multi-week highs on expectations of tighter monetary policy. The main event of the day was a hearing in the Dutch parliament where European Central Bank head, Mario Draghi spoke about monetary policy. Draghi [..]
The Australian dollar and the yen were some of the worst-performing major currencies today on improving risk appetite in the markets. The US dollar gained for a second day relative to a basket of major currencies on rising expectations for a June Fed rate hike and solid JOLTS data. The greenback rose for the third day against the yen to hit an eight-week high of 114.21 yen during the European session. Rising US bond yields have had an impact on [..]
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The aussie slid to a fresh four-month low against the greenback during today’s Asian session after disappointing Australian retail sales numbers, which unexpectedly declined by 0.1% month-on-month in March, compared to a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in February and missed estimates of a 0.3% increase. The Australian dollar fell to as low as $0.7334. The data will not likely change expectations that the RBA will keep interest rates steady for months to come. Australia’s federal budget will be released later [..]
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