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OIL-NOV24

Analysis

Analysis - 1 month agoBearish

Technical Analysis – WTI crude oil eases below downtrend line

WTI crude oil weakens negative momentumStochastic tries to head higherWTI crude oil futures continue to decline after encountering strong pushback at the 78.75 resistance and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The commodity returned beneath the short-term downtrend line, endorsing the bearish outlook.The technical oscillators show some contradicting signs in the near term.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – US dollar could benefit from an unexciting ECB meeting

ECB meets but unlikely to reverse euro’s recent trendBoth the dollar and US stocks are in a good moodNetflix reports today after TSMC's massive profit jumpGold and bitcoin in demand, oil craves a bullish catalystEuro's suffering continues as ECB meetsThe euro remains on the back foot as it continues to underperform the dollar. The pair has dropped to the lowest level since August 2 with October shaping up to be the weakest month for euro/dollar since May 2023. This dollar outperformanc
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure by chipmakers, pound slips on CPI drop

Chip stocks hit by selloff after ASML cuts 2025 guidanceDollar stretches gains as pound and kiwi fall on lower inflationOil steadier amid ongoing ME drama, gold heads towards fresh recordChip and AI stocks take a diveEquity markets suffered a setback on Tuesday after Dutch semiconductor giant, ASML, sparked panic about the demand outlook for chips when it accidentally published its earnings report a day early.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Volatility eases slightly as the risk on sentiment lingers – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility is very close to the last 30 days’ highVolatility in commodities remains elevatedStock indices experience above average volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains very high, close to the highest level of the past month, as the US dollar continues to rally following a series of strong US data and some hawkish Fedspeak. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses has crashed across the board, with the yen surrendering another good part of its recent sizeable gains on th
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – US dollar and stock rally continues

Euphoria in US assets, stock indices reach new highsToday's Fed speakers could threaten Monday’s gainsOil and gold in the red, bitcoin enjoys a strong boostPound ignores jobs data, awaits Wednesday’s CPIUS stocks and dollar in the greenBoth the US dollar and main US equity indices enjoyed another strong session yesterday. Euro/dollar traded at a 45-day low, and both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indices recorded new all-time highs despite the Columbus Day bank holiday keeping both th
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up, stocks muted as China stimulus underwhelms

China announces more stimulus details but no word on size of packageAttention turns to week’s other events as stocks unimpressedEuro and pound flat as ECB decision and UK CPI awaitedChina pledges more support, stocks steadyChinese officials unveiled more measures to shore up the country’s embattled property sector while also pledging further support for businesses and consumers in two separate announcements on Saturday and Monday.
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Analysis - 1 month agoBullish

WTI oil futures turn up, create bullish candlestick patternOptimism could resurface if bulls break above 77.16-79.00WTI oil futures bounced swiftly up to 76.23 on Thursday, revealing that the bulls have not left town yet.While the price was struggling to find fresh buyers at the time of writing, the bullish doji candlestick pattern created over the past two days retained hopes for a bullish continuation.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Wall Street hits new record after Fed minutes, CPI eyed next

Fed minutes show split over September cut but Wall Street ralliesDollar eases from near 2-month high as focus turns to CPI reportGold and oil steadier after recent lossesFed minutes add little clarity The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting published on Wednesday did little to end the uncertainty about the pace of rate reductions over the coming months.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar seeks direction amidst tepid market conditions

Fed speakers and minutes in the spotlight todayDollar’s rally pauses, but oil and gold suffer lossesRBNZ cuts rates by 50bps, kiwi weakensChina schedules another press conference as local stocks plungeFed members continue to support a November rate cutThe public discussion regarding the Fed’s next steps continues, as a plethora of Fed members are on the wires almost on a daily basis.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Risk appetite ebbs as markets fret over China stimulus, Fed rate cuts

Risk sentiment dented as China refrains from fresh stimulus measuresFed officials give cautious green light to more rate cutsDollar and equities turn lower after recent gains as US CPI awaitedMarkets consolidate as China announcement disappointsOptimism about China’s newfound love for bold stimulus policies faded slightly on Tuesday as a much-anticipated press briefing by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ended without any significant new measures being announce
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Volatility skyrockets across the board after an eventful week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges to the highest level of the monthVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly highStock indices experience very high volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has reached the highest level of the past 30 days, as the FX market was rocked by the strong US labour market report, denting the possibility of another 50bps Fed rate cut in November.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, NZDUSD, Oil

USDJPY flirts with August’s high after NFP boost; US CPI figures awaitedNZDUSD takes a breather after freefall; RBNZ to deliver a double rate cutWTI oil futures back on the rise as geopolitics worsen; next resistance at 77.16US CPI inflation --> USDJPY  Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was a strong beat. US jobs growth rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and wage growth edged up, leaving investors no option other than to dismiss the
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar stands tall after robust jobs report

Strong US data dent chances of a 50bps Fed rate cutPlethora of Fed speakers on the wires todayDollar enjoys strong gains, stocks rally unexpectedlyOil pushes higher as gold’s retreat continuesUS jobs report surprises to the upside, doves are displeasedAnother exciting week commences as market participants are still digesting the unexpectedly strong US labour market data.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Quick brief – ISM non-mfg PMI beats forecasts, Biden comments on Iran’s oil facilities

ISM non-mfg PMI rises faster than expected in September; employment index declinesBiden alleges that Israel is preparing to carry out attacks on Iran’s oil sites The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey indicated growth for the third straight month in September, with the index reaching 54.9 - the highest reading since February 2023 - surpassing analysts’ expectations of 51.7 and August’s reading of 51.4.The new orders index saw a significant increase of over 6 points to reach 59.4, while the
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains on upbeat US data

Dollar gains as ADP jobs report beats estimatesYen falls on prime minister Ishiba’s dovish remarksPound collapses after BoE’s Bailey warns about faster cutsWall Street virtually unchanged, gold retreats, oil extends gainsUS data allow dollar to extend latest recoveryThe dollar extended its gains against its major peers on Wednesday and during the Asian session Thursday.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – Will WTI oil futures continue higher?

WTI oil futures bounce up but not meaningfullyTechnical risks favor the bulls; resistance at 73.00-74.00WTI oil futures jumped back to the 70 territory after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Tuesday, reminding investors that the tensions in the Middle East could escalate further before the situation improves.Despite the bullish correction, the price could not overcome the support-turned-into-resistance zone of 71.95 and the descending trendline from Ju
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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