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FX options wrap - Policy clues and USD warnings

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Policy clues and USD warnings G10 FX Option implied volatility is well supported by bouts of risk aversion relating to Russia/Ukraine that's underpinning the USD and JPY. The benchmark 1-month expiry is also benefiting from the inclusion of policy announcements from the U.S. and Japan on Dec. 18-19 . USD/JPY was under pressure after the latest comments by BoJ governor Ueda on Thursday, which highlights the sensitivity of this pairing to any clues about impending policy .
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USD/JPY downside warning from the FX options market

BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/JPY downside warning from the FX options market Nov 21 (Reuters) - The latest price action in FX option markets should send a fresh warning to USD/JPY traders about the perceived potential for deeper FX declines. There's been renewed demand for FX option implied volatility and JPY call/USD put options that would benefit from USD/JPY spot losses and implied volatility gains .
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China's central bank is welding a lid on USD/CNY

BUZZ-COMMENT-China's central bank is welding a lid on USD/CNY Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bets on the yuan depreciating aren't getting much traction anymore, as China's central bank welds a tight lid on USD/CNY using the daily midpoint that determines its daily trading bandwidth. For more than a week, the People's Bank of China has been applying a counter-cyclical adjustment factor to the USD/CNY fixing, keeping it under the psychological benchmark of 7.2000. The upper limit for spot has hence been hover
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FX options wrap - Billions, euro warning, BoJ risk, yuan view

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Billions, euro warning, BoJ risk, yuan view FX option implied volatility retreated from the peaks seen amid Tuesday's bout of risk aversion, but the pullback was limited. EUR/USD is still mired in billions of euros of soon-to-expire option strikes between 1.05-1.06 , which is helping to limit and contain FX. However, price action indicates an ongoing perceived threat of more EUR/USD losses , with renewed demand for EUR puts/USD calls via risk reversals.
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FX options show potential for USD/JPY 160 before 150

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options show potential for USD/JPY 160 before 150 Nov 20 (Reuters) - Price action in forward looking FX options can offer clues about the perceived outlook for a currency pair as demonstrated by USD/CNH and EUR/USD on Wednesday. Price action in USD/JPY options is clearly concerned about downside, especially around the December Bank of Japan announcement , but isn't ruling out a 160.00 test, prior.
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Billions in FX option strikes strangle EUR/USD

BUZZ-COMMENT-Billions in FX option strikes strangle EUR/USD Nov 20 (Reuters) - Soon-to-expire FX option strikes attract the most cash - related hedging flows which can help to restrict volatility and contain the FX spot price. There are billions of euros of nearby EUR/USD strikes expiring this week and they continue to grow. EUR/USD has reverted toward 2.4 billion euros of 1.0540-50 strikes that expire at 10 a.m.
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China's yuan steady as dollar strength loses momentum

China's yuan steady as dollar strength loses momentum SHANGHAI, Nov 20 (Reuters) - China's yuan held steady on Wednesday with the dollar retreating from one-year highs as traders tried to come to grips with the sharp escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The dollar index .DXY was wobbly after losing ground for two straight sessions, taking a breather after earlier getting a safe-haven driven lift as U.S.
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FX options wrap - Central banks and Russia threat boost prices

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Central banks and Russia threat boost prices After easing from peaks amid a slight decline in demand for USD and USD calls, FX option implied volatility got a renewed boost on Tuesday from the inclusion of major central bank meetings on a key expiry date and risk-aversion sparked by news from Russia. Having moved to Dec. 19, the benchmark 1-month option expiry now includes policy announcements from the U.S., Britain and Japan.
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Huge options can influence EUR/USD this week

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Huge options can influence EUR/USD this week Repeat removes mention of Monday strikes which have now expired Nov 18 (Reuters) - With little significant data before Friday's Eurozone PMIs, huge FX option strike expiries and their related FX hedging flows may dominate EUR/USD trading this week. Those trading FX volatility via FX options will typically neutralise any exposure to the currency pair with an opposing cash position and these flows can increase and potentially draw/conta
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December's Fed and BoJ flash up on FX options radar

BUZZ-COMMENT-December's Fed and BoJ flash up on FX options radar Nov 19 (Reuters) - The benchmark 1-month FX option expiry date is now Dec. 19 and includes both the U.S. and Japanese policy announcements, with related pricing suggesting the Bank of Japan may pose a greater FX volatility risk. Volatility is a key yet unknown parameter of an FX option price, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in.
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Yuan steadies at 3-1/2-mth low on firmer-than-expected fix, tighter offshore conditions

Yuan steadies at 3-1/2-mth low on firmer-than-expected fix, tighter offshore conditions SHANGHAI, Nov 19 (Reuters) - China's yuan managed to steady at a 3-1/2-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, as signs of tighter cash conditions offshore and a firmer-than-expected official guidance helped prevent further selling of the Chinese currency. The yuan has been put to the sword recently by Donald Trump's return to the White House, as investors worried about higher tariffs on Chinese goods and ho
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FX options wrap - BoJ fuel, USD threat, big EUR, CNH risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - BoJ fuel, USD threat, big EUR, CNH risk USD/JPY traders pared USD/JPY risk premium as BoJ Governor Ueda failed to commit to a December rate hike. Benchmark 1-month implied volatility had rallied 1.0 to 11.2 since early Europe on Friday and has since reverted to 10.5. There is a strong negative correlation between USD/JPY spot and implied volatility which should lift the latter if USD/JPY drops again or if traders feel USD/JPY's downside is becoming more vulnerable .
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Huge options can influence EUR/USD this week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Huge options can influence EUR/USD this week Nov 18 (Reuters) - With little significant data before Friday's Eurozone PMIs, huge FX option strike expiries and their related FX hedging flows may dominate EUR/USD trading this week. Those trading FX volatility via FX options will typically neutralise any exposure to the currency pair with an opposing cash position and these flows can increase and potentially draw/contain FX spot to the strike price before the 10-am New York cut expiry.
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Citi bank's take on potential JPY intervention

BUZZ-COMMENT-Citi bank's take on potential JPY intervention Nov 18 (Reuters) - The base case scenario for Citi research is for the Japanese government to intervene to buy the JPY in the 160.00 to 165.00 zone versus the U.S. dollar. However, in a note released before Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke on Monday , Citi recognises that the rapid weakening in the JPY since October has already taken the currency pair above 155.00. The MoF will likely be preparing to intervene, but Japanese finan
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Global investment banks rush to trim yuan forecasts under looming Trump tariff threats

Global investment banks rush to trim yuan forecasts under looming Trump tariff threats Adds forecasts and comments, changes keywords for media clients to CHINA-MARKETS/FORECASTS-YUAN from CHINA-MARKETS/FORECASTS SHANGHAI, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Global investment banks are rushing to trim their forecasts for the Chinese yuan amid the looming threat of rising trade tensions following Donald Trump's win in the U.S.
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China's yuan steady on PBOC guidance; outlook shaky on US tariff risks

China's yuan steady on PBOC guidance; outlook shaky on US tariff risks SHANGHAI, Nov 18 (Reuters) - China's yuan was steady on Monday as the dollar's furious rally took a breather, while the Chinese central bank renewed its support through its regular market guidance and some signs of green shoots in the economy helped rein in the currency's fall.
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Asia Day Ahead-Risk aversion, JPY gains and Ueda speech lead

BUZZ-Asia Day Ahead-Risk aversion, JPY gains and Ueda speech lead Nov 18 (Reuters) - Monday's speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is in focus after broad gains for the yen on Friday, amid risk aversion triggered by concerns about slower interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and potential for escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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FX options wrap - Trump trades fuel a wild volatility ride

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trades fuel a wild volatility ride Broader FX option implied volatility has seen a dramatic shift following the U.S. election. After initially dropping sharply as the election risk premium was pared back, volatility surged anew as demand for the "Trump trade" intensified. Traders moved to hedge against further USD strength and the potential for heightened uncertainty in the weeks ahead.
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Fed draws veil over post-election easing

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Fed draws veil over post-election easing A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Faced with another monthly round of stubborn inflation and uncertainty about fiscal, tariff and immigration policy ahead, the Federal Reserve is getting cagier about the extent of further policy easing. Fed boss Jerome Powell didn't give much away in a keenly-watched set-piece speech on Thursday, but made it clear that the central bank still sees a robust economy and h
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Nov 15 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and for the week ahead. The largest EUR/USD strikes showing so far on LSEG SDRV app are on Monday between 1.0500-20 on 2 billion euros, 1.0600 on 1.5 billion euros and 1.0625 on 1.1 billion euros.
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