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AUDNZD

News

Reuters - 11 hours ago

FX options wrap - Policy clues and USD warnings

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Policy clues and USD warnings G10 FX Option implied volatility is well supported by bouts of risk aversion relating to Russia/Ukraine that's underpinning the USD and JPY. The benchmark 1-month expiry is also benefiting from the inclusion of policy announcements from the U.S. and Japan on Dec. 18-19 . USD/JPY was under pressure after the latest comments by BoJ governor Ueda on Thursday, which highlights the sensitivity of this pairing to any clues about impending policy .
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Reuters - 1 day ago

FX options wrap - Billions, euro warning, BoJ risk, yuan view

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Billions, euro warning, BoJ risk, yuan view FX option implied volatility retreated from the peaks seen amid Tuesday's bout of risk aversion, but the pullback was limited. EUR/USD is still mired in billions of euros of soon-to-expire option strikes between 1.05-1.06 , which is helping to limit and contain FX. However, price action indicates an ongoing perceived threat of more EUR/USD losses , with renewed demand for EUR puts/USD calls via risk reversals.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

FX options wrap - Central banks and Russia threat boost prices

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Central banks and Russia threat boost prices After easing from peaks amid a slight decline in demand for USD and USD calls, FX option implied volatility got a renewed boost on Tuesday from the inclusion of major central bank meetings on a key expiry date and risk-aversion sparked by news from Russia. Having moved to Dec. 19, the benchmark 1-month option expiry now includes policy announcements from the U.S., Britain and Japan.
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Reuters - 3 days ago

FX options wrap - BoJ fuel, USD threat, big EUR, CNH risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - BoJ fuel, USD threat, big EUR, CNH risk USD/JPY traders pared USD/JPY risk premium as BoJ Governor Ueda failed to commit to a December rate hike. Benchmark 1-month implied volatility had rallied 1.0 to 11.2 since early Europe on Friday and has since reverted to 10.5. There is a strong negative correlation between USD/JPY spot and implied volatility which should lift the latter if USD/JPY drops again or if traders feel USD/JPY's downside is becoming more vulnerable .
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Reuters - 6 days ago

FX options wrap - Trump trades fuel a wild volatility ride

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trades fuel a wild volatility ride Broader FX option implied volatility has seen a dramatic shift following the U.S. election. After initially dropping sharply as the election risk premium was pared back, volatility surged anew as demand for the "Trump trade" intensified. Traders moved to hedge against further USD strength and the potential for heightened uncertainty in the weeks ahead.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Nov 15 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and for the week ahead. The largest EUR/USD strikes showing so far on LSEG SDRV app are on Monday between 1.0500-20 on 2 billion euros, 1.0600 on 1.5 billion euros and 1.0625 on 1.1 billion euros.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

FX options wrap - USD bull fatigue and profit taking

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD bull fatigue and profit taking The resurgence in FX option implied volatility, fuelled by heightened USD demand following the U.S. election, peaked late on Tuesday before subsiding as supply returned on Wednesday. EUR/USD was leading the charge with its benchmark 1-month implied volatility rebounding from 9.0-6.25 post-election drop, to peak at 7.9 on Tuesday.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

FX options wrap - Resurgence, hedges, barriers, U.S. CPI risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Resurgence, hedges, barriers, U.S. CPI risk FX option implied volatility has seen a resurgence since the initial paring of the U.S. election FX volatility risk premium, with EUR/USD at the fore . Struggling European Union growth, tariff threats and German political worries have combined with broad USD demand amid higher for longer U.S.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

FX options wrap - Rising USD lifts prices/Trump hedges

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Rising USD lifts prices/Trump hedges USD gains are lending support to broader FX option implied volatility and its USD call over put premium, which may have more upside potential. EUR/USD options are the main beneficiary on Monday after the pair breached 1.0650 barriers for new lows since April. That lifted the benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility from 6.8 to 7.5 (fell 9.0-6.25 post U.S.
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Reuters - 2 weeks ago

FX options wrap - Value potential after post election slump

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Value potential after post election slump Broad based FX option implied volatility was hit hard as risk premiums were priced out as soon as it became clear that Donald Trump would win the U.S. election, with the lower levels now potentially offering decent entry levels. That's certainly the case in EUR/USD, with the three month expiry implied volatility staging a solid bounce from 6.35 to 6.8 on Wednesday and meeting more demand after easing again on Thursday.
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Reuters - 2 weeks ago

FX options wrap - Election risks shift to Trump trades

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election risks shift to Trump trades The extreme FX volatility risk premiums to cover a protracted U.S. election process were rapidly unwound when Donald Trump took an early lead, with subsequent price action shifting to the potential FX risks ahead . Strong gamma demand leading up to the U.S. election had taken sub 1-month expiry implied volatility to new long term highs, especially in the likes of CNH and MXN .
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Reuters - 2 weeks ago

FX options wrap - Election risk, long gamma, hedge fund flow

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election risk, long gamma, hedge fund flow Shorter dated expiry FX option implied volatility is reaching extreme levels and underscoring the perceived risk of heightened FX realised volatility driven by the impending U.S. election results. No surprise to hear that "gamma demand" is at the fore, given that options with long gamma typically benefit the most from increased FX volatility.
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Reuters - 2 weeks ago

FX options wrap - U.S. election FX volatility risk warnings

BUZZ-FX options wrap - U.S. election FX volatility risk warnings Implied volatility gauges FX realised volatility risk, so it's no surprise to see it trading extreme highs before the U.S. election on Tuesday. The two candidates are neck and neck, which is adding to the uncertainty that can drive volatility . One-week implied volatility is significantly higher since its option expiry date moved past the U.S.
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Reuters - 3 weeks ago

Australian dollar undermined by rising US yields ahead of inflation test

Australian dollar undermined by rising US yields ahead of inflation test SYDNEY, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit new 2-1/2-month lows on Tuesday as the relentless rise in U.S. yields elevated the greenback, with traders now looking ahead to local quarterly inflation data that could make or break the chance of a rate cut this year. The Aussie AUD=D3 slipped 0.1% to hit $0.6578, the lowest level since mid-August, after falling 0.3% overnight.
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Reuters - 1 month ago

FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing FX calm before US election storm Price action in FX options reinforces the outlook that there's little to excite FX markets before the U.S. election, but plenty of risks to hedge in its wake. The recent/current lack of FX realised volatility is weighing on implied volatility, especially for options that expire prior to the U.S.
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Reuters - 1 month ago

Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Repeats with no changes Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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Reuters - 1 month ago

FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD gains and Trump trades are key drivers FX option implied volatility remains broadly heavy amid the ongoing lack of FX realised volatility, but the impending U.S. election and the risk of an extended USD recovery maintain demand and premium for the 'Trump trade' . Overnight expiry EUR related implied volatility was the lowest for any ECB policy announcement in 2024 - consistent with the lack of actual volatility in its wake.
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Reuters - 1 month ago

FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Trump trade, ECB risk, revealing sales Shorter dated expiry implied volatility in most of the major currency pairs remains under pressure and reflects the lack of current FX realised volatility. That's not expected to change much until the U.S. election, where implied volatility is higher and better supported. Overnight expiry implied volatility remains very low, even in EUR related pairings which now include Thursday's ECB policy announcement .
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Reuters - 1 month ago

Hedging a Trump victory with FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-Hedging a Trump victory with FX options Oct 16 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election in just three weeks and former President Donald Trump regaining a lead in the polls, FX option dealers report increased demand for options to hedge the risk of a Trump victory. Societe Generale think AUD/USD would be the most at risk from a Trump win and in a recent client note, are highlighting three trades to hedge that risk.
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Reuters - 1 month ago

FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Pricing says FX is still going nowhere fast Another day of FX consolidation and limited volatility which keeps the pressure on FX option implied volatility . EUR/USD tested below 1.0900 but lacked the impetus needed to excite the FX options market. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, so it would take a surprise hold to reignite related FX volatility.
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