US debt is a 'rest of the world' problem ... for now
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US DEBT IS A 'REST OF THE WORLD' PROBLEM ... FOR NOW
Unsustainable debt is usually a huge problem for the country that runs it, as it means potential default, risks of big losses on financial assets, and a hard impact on the real economy.
However, according to the Pictet Research Institute, the backdrop is different for the U.S..
The U.S. are the ultimate case of “too big to fail” with the downside asymmetrically tilted against the Rest of the World (ROW), which is highly invested in U.S. assets, it says.
“The superior ability of the U.S. to develop new technologies, innovation and unicorn companies has continued to attract non-U.S. capital,” Pictet Research Institute says.
“Equally central is the continued ability of the ROW to generate capital surpluses and to invest in the U.S. rather than in its domestic economy.”
However, things can change.
Pictet says the main risk to U.S. debt sustainability is geopolitical in nature.
An increasingly polarised world aims to challenge the dominance of the U.S. and the desirability of its assets in the global financial system. Initiatives such as those of the BRICS Plus group, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa and additional countries, merit close monitoring.
The BRICS group aims to increase economic cooperation, and potentially create a counterbalance to Western-dominated global institutions.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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