Tighter US immigration policies to weigh on immigrant blue-collar workers -Goldman
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TIGHTER US IMMIGRATION POLICIES TO WEIGH ON IMMIGRANT BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS -GOLDMAN
Net immigration in the United States is set to slow further under tighter immigration policies in 2025 and weigh on industries like construction and private household services, Goldman Sachs says, citing data from 2023 American Community Survey (ACS).
"While details of the new immigration policy remain uncertain, we expect it to disproportionately weigh on unauthorized immigrants and industries that employ a sizable share of these workers," said Goldman analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius in a research note.
Republican President-elect Donald Trump is expected to crack down on illegal immigration and try to restrict legal immigration when he returns to the White House on Jan. 20.
Since the share of immigrants both authorized and unauthorized working primarily in construction, accommodation, and food services jobs is significantly higher, any reduction in the flow of authorized immigrants would amplify the impact on these industries, Hatzius says.
Further, Goldman estimates that unauthorized U.S. immigrants earn 20% less on average in hourly wages than their authorized counterparts in the same industry; thus employers with more unauthorized immigrant workforce would likely face higher average wage costs.
(Kanchana Chakravarty)
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