Post-election VIX plunge suggests strong S&P 500 rally
Nasdaq up ~1.4%, S&P 500 up ~0.7%, Dow edges green
FOMC statement expected at 2 PM EST
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.7%
Dollar down; bitcoin ~flat; crude up; gold rallies ~1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~4.36%
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POST-ELECTION VIX PLUNGE SUGGESTS STRONG S&P 500 RALLY
The sharp drop in Wall Street's most-watched index for market volatility and investor anxiety following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election tends to precede a rally in the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX, according to SentimenTrader's Dean Christians.
Former President Donald Trump secured a dramatic comeback to capture the White House after defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, along with Republicans seizing control of the U.S. Senate. Control of the House of Representatives is still undecided.
The Cboe Volatility Index .VIX plunged by about 21% after the election results became clear on Wednesday, a decline that has been seen only four other times since 1992, when data became available, according to Christians.
Data shows that whenever the VIX opened down 15% or more from the previous session's close, the S&P 500 showed a very strong tendency to rally over the next three and six months, advancing almost 90% of the time, Christians said.
Furthermore, the maximum losses incurred by the S&P 500 in the next six months stood at about 10%, with each decline linked to events such as the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2008, Flash Crash in 2010, and the European Debt Crisis in 2011. These scenarios are markedly different from the current macroeconomic backdrop, Christians said.
"Investors, relieved from the uncertainty of the election cycle, bought stocks, driving the S&P 500 up over 2% at the open to an intraday record high," Christians said. "Similar precedents resulted in a 100% win rate for the S&P 500 over the next six months, which dovetails nicely with the favorable seasonal period for stocks."
(Chibuike Oguh)
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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
TWO LABOR MARKET METRICS FOR FED DAY - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX NEARS 6k AHEAD OF THE FED - CLICK HERE
U.S. ELECTION PULLS RETAIL TRADERS TO STOCK MARKETS - CLICK HERE
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: CHARGING TOWARD A BATTLE LINE - CLICK HERE
TRUMP CONSTRAINTS COULD DECIDE EUROPEAN EQUITIES' FATE - CLICK HERE
EUROPE RISES ON STRONGER MINING, AUTOS, BUT EARNINGS DRAG - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES RISE AHEAD OF JAMPACKED DAY - CLICK HERE
GERMAN POLITICAL DRAMA ADDS TO TRUMP RISKS FOR EUROPE - CLICK HERE
Post-election VIX plunge https://tmsnrt.rs/4eoXvAq
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