Polish retail sales recovered losses in October, higher than expected
WARSAW, Nov 26 (Reuters) -Polish retail sales rose 1.3% in October, reversing losses from September, but consumption remains subdued and households are still rebuilding savings, mindful of a recent period of high inflation, analysts said.
Polish retail sales at constant prices PLRSCO=ECI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.8% increase after a drop of 3% in September.
"The October data are undoubtedly pleasing in the context of the September negative surprise, but at the same time, comparing the real dynamics of retail sales at the level of 1.3% y/y with those recorded in the first half of this year... it is clearly visible that households are cautious in spending money," Monika Kurtek, chief economist of Bank Pocztowy, wrote in a note.
The largest increases were recorded in vehicle sales, which increased by 24.1% year-on-year, while declines were recorded in fuel sales, which fell by 9.1% year-on-year, which was related to the high base effect in 2023, driven by promotional shopping.
Analysts said that even though the data turned out to be slightly better than forecasts, it indicates a further weakening of consumption, which they hope will rebound.
"Consumption slowed down in the second half of 2024, but there is no collapse. There are savings, a return to spending is only a matter of time," say ING BSK analysts.
Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz; Editing by Shreya Biswas
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