Nasdaq composite: Once again, it's make-or-break for breadth
Dow futures up slightly, S&P 500 slip, Nasdaq 100 off ~0.5%
Sep NY Fed Manufacturing index 11.5 vs -4.75 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
Dollar down; bitcoin off ~2; gold edges up; crude up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.66%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ONCE AGAIN, IT'S MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR BREADTH
The Nasdaq composite .IXIC is still down more than 5% from its record highs. That said, the tech-laden index is on a five day win streak, and just posted its biggest weekly rise since early-November 2023.
With this, one measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq daily Advance/Decline (A/D) line, is once again nearing key resistance:
Over the past year or so, this Nasdaq breadth measure has been consistently failing at the resistance line from its late-2021 high.
In fact, the three most severe sell offs over this period that began in July 2023, and March and July of this year, were accompanied by the A/D nearing this line, only to see it breakdown, and fall to new lows.
At this time, the A/D line appears to have little room to wiggle given that it's trapped between the downwardly sloped resistance line and its most recent trough on September 6.
Thus, traders are on edge as they await a resolution of this range one way or the other. Perhaps this week's FOMC meeting will provide a catalyst.
In the event the resistance line is overwhelmed, it may signal a significant trend change for the breadth measure, finally leading to a long-awaited, and more sustained, broadening of Nasdaq strength.
Conversely, fresh A/D line lows may be accompanied by a return of composite instability, especially if Mag 7 names fail to pick up the slack.
Meanwhile, the NYSE daily A/D line ended Friday at a fresh record high.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
FROM NOW UNTIL YEAR-END: WHAT COULD GO WELL - CLICK HERE
BUYBACKS FROM EUROPEAN ENERGY NAMES TO SLOW IN 2025 - UBS - CLICK HERE
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE FED EASING STARTS? - CLICK HERE
TEPID START FOR STOXX AS MINERS WEIGH - CLICK HERE
WEAK START FOR EUROPE AHEAD OF PACKED WEEK - CLICK HERE
HANGING ON THE FED - CLICK HERE
NasdaqADline09162024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4gpKuce
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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