Indian shares set to open little changed ahead of union budget
BENGALURU, July 23 (Reuters) -Indian shares will likely open little changed on Tuesday, as investors brace for policy announcements in the union budget due at 11 a.m. IST, which could have a huge bearing on the trajectory of markets.
The GIFT Nifty GIFc1 was at 24,550 points as of 7:19 a.m. IST, suggesting that the NSE Nifty 50 .NSEI will open near its Monday's close of 24,509.25.
The Nifty has hit multiple all-time highs through its roughly 13% rally this year, despite a near 6% slide on June 4 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party returned to power but by unexpectedly having to rely on allies. Still, the index has risen in each of the seven weeks since.
The budget, the new government's first major policy announcement, is expected to focus on job creation and boosting consumption, which analysts expect will be positive for sectors such consumer goods, real estate and autos.
The Nifty held ground on Monday but volatility spiked, with some analysts saying there could be higher taxes for trading-related capital gains or for derivatives trading.
"There is an outlier probability of negative changes in the capital gains tax regime, which could trigger a strong sell-off and prolonged sideways market thereafter," said Seshadri Sen and Arthkumar Gandhi, analysts at Emkay Global.
The Nifty's more-than-200% surge from the COVID-19 lows in March 2020 was largely powered by an influx of retail traders, especially in the derivatives market.
Still, that influx, and the country's rising market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, were among the markets-related cautionary statements in the government's Economic Survey released on Monday.
In the survey, the government also pegged economic growth at 6.5%-7% growth for 2024-25, less than most analysts and even the central bank's projection.
Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza
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