DataTrek gives year-end 2025 S&P 500 target of 6,840
Main U.S. indexes gain; Dow out front, up ~0.8%
Cons disc leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Comm Svcs weakest group
Dollar rallies; bitcoin, crude, gold all add >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.41%
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DATATREK GIVES YEAR-END 2025 S&P 500 TARGET OF 6,840
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, in a note Friday forecasts the S&P 500 .SPX will end 2025 at 6,840.
The index was last at about 5,967.
Colas notes that since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual total return of 11.7%, and that the yield on the index is currently 1.3%.
He notes that "great years come at either the start or during an economic expansion with modestly lower valuations.
"I think this framing is more useful than Wall Street price targets, because it explains why returns end up being much better or worse than the average," Colas writes.
He also says that "since the S&P 500 trades for a very high valuation just now... the most important issue for anyone invested in the US equity market is the stability of the US economy in 2025."
The bottom line, he writes, is that "valuations and the manifold uncertainties around the next 12 months make it easy to be bearish here but, in keeping with our mantra that 'math is not an edge,' we remain positive and believe the S&P 500 can rally more than its long-term average over the coming year."
(Caroline Valetkevitch)
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