China's yuan gains as dollar extends weakness on trade war concerns
By Summer Zhen
HONG KONG, Nov 28 (Reuters) -China's yuan was firmer against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the greenback retreated from a recent rally on investors' concerns over the risk that President-elect Donald Trump will start a tariff war that no one will win.
Interest in making big bets on the dollar also thinned ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Prior to the market opening, the People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate CNY=PBOC, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1894 per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 11 and 333 pips firmer than a Reuters' estimate.
The relatively stable onshore fixing rate through the gyrations of the dollar indicated "Chinese authorities' preference for a stable currency for now at least until better clarity on Trump’s tariff policies," Michael Wan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank said in a note.
Investors are still digesting Trump's pledges to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China once he assumes office in January, which could draw retaliation from those countries.
The move could drag the world's top two economies into a mutually destructive tariff war, China state media warned on Wednesday.
Spot yuan CNY=CFXS opened at 7.2380 per dollar and was last trading 15 pips firmer than the previous late session close and 0.78% weaker than the midpoint.
UBS Global Wealth Management expects the yuan to weaken toward 7.5 against the dollar by the end of 2025 as the trade war intensifies, even as China's central bank leans against yuan depreciation by stabilizing its daily fixing rate against the dollar.
J.P. Morgan economists said the yuan could depreciate between 10% and 15% amid the tariff pressure in 2025, and China's economic growth rate could be dragged by 1%.
The offshore yuan traded at 7.2513 yuan per dollar CNH=, down about 0.09% in Asian trade.
The dollar's six-currency index =USD was steadier at 106.2.
LEVELS AT 0338 GMT
INSTRUMENT | CURRENT vs USD | UP/DOWN(-) VS. PREVIOUS CLOSE % | % CHANGE YR-TO-DATE | DAY'S HIGH | DAY'S LOW |
Spot yuan <CNY=CFXS | 7.2455 | 0.02 | -1.99 | 7.238 | 7.2465 |
Offshore yuan spot CNH=D3 | 7.2517 | -0.08 | -1.74 | 7.2416 | 7.252 |
Reporting by Summer Zhen; Editing by Sonali Paul
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