USD/JPY enters dip buying phase as stars align
The path for USD/JPY to revisit its 2024 high of 161.96 has been cleared following the U.S. election results.
The journey, however, is unlikely to be a smooth one. Dollar gains are already facing some resistance amid profit-taking ahead an expected Fed rate cut on Thursday.
There is also some concern that the speed of USD/JPY’s move up, one the steepest since the pandemic, may entice Japanese authorities to intervene as it approaches the 155 pivot level.
The likelihood of that occurring is low. Two barometers of intervention risk, option convexity and short yen positioning on the IMM, are nowhere near levels seen when yen buying was conducted in May and July. Additionally, Japanese businesses are not as concerned about rising import costs.
The Japanese currency is receiving some support against the currencies most vulnerable to potential U.S. tariffs. For example, EUR/JPY remains lower on the session even as U.S. shares advance.
A weaker yen could also accelerate potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan once the Japanese political landscape stabilizes.
However, the strategy for November may become buying USD/JPY dips as the market seemingly heads toward another phase of U.S. exceptionalism, with seasonality beginning to work against the yen. Only a drop below the Oct. 21 high of 150.58 and Oct. 4 high of 149.01 would change the USD/JPY bullish bias.
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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