XM does not provide services to residents of the United States of America.

Dollar set for big weekly gain as Powell sends yields up, China data mixed



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar set for big weekly gain as Powell sends yields up, China data mixed</title></head><body>

Fed Chair Powell signals no rush for rate cuts

Dollar sits near 1-yr top, euro struggles amid policy divergence

Asian shares set to end brutal week on steadier note

Yen bears on alert as Japan issues FX warning

Updates prices as of 0530 GMT

By Stella Qiu

SYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was poised for a big weekly gain on Friday, towering near one-year highs as a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve chief sent short-term Treasury yields higher, leaving Wall Street and European stock market futuresin the red.

Asian shares looked to end a brutal week on a steadier note, helped by Chinese data showingretail sales in the world's second-biggest economy beat forecasts in October in a welcome sign for consumer spending, although other indicators missed.

Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to rush rate cuts with the economy still growing, the job market solid and inflation still above the 2% target, tempering expectations for a rate cut next month.

Fed fund futures 0#FF: slumped with December off 7 ticks and imply just 71 basis points of rate cuts by the end of2025. A rate cut next month is no longer a high probability event, with just 61% priced in, down from 82.5% in the prior session.

That lifted the dollar across the board, especially against the euro as expectations for more aggressive policy easing in Europe further undermined the single currency already trading at one-year lows.

Goldman Sachs now sees a greater risk that the Fed could slow the pace of easing sooner, possibly as soon as the December or January meetings, while JPMorgan still tips the Fed to cut in December though they expect the central bank could dial down the easing pace in January.

"After the sugar hit of Trump’s election and its subsequent impacts on expectations for company profits, the market’s enthusiasm is being watered-down by greater interest rate uncertainty, especially going into next year," said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com.

On Friday, Nasdaq futures NQc1 fell 0.4% while S&P 500 futures ESc1 eased 0.3%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 fell 0.4%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.4% but was still down 4.1% for the week, itsbiggest weekly loss since June 2023.

A regional healthcare index .MIAPJHC00PUS underperformed with a drop of 0.7%, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine sceptic, to lead the top U.S.health agency.

Tokyo's Nikkei .N225, however, gained 0.7% drivenby a pull back in the yen, which boosted the outlook for Japanese exporters. Still, it was down 1.7% for the week.

The dollar has gainedfor five days on the yen, and was upanother 0.1%to 156.36JPY=EBS, thehighest level since July.

But yen bears were on guard as Japan's finance ministry kept up its warnings of government action against excessive currency moves. The Bankof Japan also announced Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech on Monday, which will be watched for any hints on the timing of the next rate hike.

Chinese shares trimmed earlier losses as official data showed retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 4.8% in October, but growth in industrial output missed forecasts and declines in property investment deepened.

China's blue chips were last down 0.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI rose 0.5%.

On the U.S. policy front, even before Powell spoke, producer price data showed that the core gauge surprised slightly to the upside, which also had markets worried about the pace of easing ahead.

Short-term Treasury yields shot up overnight and remained elevated on Friday. The two-year yields US2YT=RR held at 4.358%, having jumped 6 basis points overnight to close at 4.357%.

In the currency markets, the dollar is set for a big weekly gain of 1.7% againstits major peers. FRX/

The euro EUR=EBS nursed heavy losses at $1.0541 and is set for a hefty weekly loss of 1.7%.Minutes of the latest meeting from the European Central Bank showed the cut last month was likely an insurance move.

Markets are, however, more dovish on the ECB and see a decent 36% chance it could step up its easing in December with a half-point move to guard against growth risks. They are also wagering that the ECB will have to cut at each meeting until mid next year. 0#EURIRPR

The lofty dollar pressured commodity prices, with gold prices XAU= down 4.4% this week to $2,565.18, bringing the monthly loss so far to a sizeable 6.5%.

Oil are also down for the week. Brent crude futures LCOc1 are set for a weekly loss of 2.8% and were last at $71.79 a barrel.


Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA


Reporting by Stella Qiu
Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kim Coghill

To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA
</body></html>

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

Risk Warning: Your capital is at risk. Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone. Please consider our Risk Disclosure.