Dollar falls against yen, US data leaves rate cut hopes intact
September US PCE inflation ticks up, as expected
Fed seen cutting policy rate by 25 bps in Nov and Dec
Yen firms after less dovish BOJ
Euro higher after the bloc's strong Oct inflation data
Updates to U.S. afternoon
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Laura Matthews
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) -The dollar fell against the yen onThursday, after the Bank of Japan's less dovish remarks and U.S. data suggested upward price pressures continue to ease, keeping the FederalReserve on track to cut interest rates by 25 basis pointsnext week.
Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in September, putting the economy on a higher growth trajectory heading into the final three months of the year.
Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year increase in the personal consumption expenditures index, was 2.1% in September, down from an upwardly revised 2.3% in August, a Commerce Department report showed. The Fed aims for2% inflation.
"The baseline is still that they cut by 25 basis points next week," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.
But with U.S. inflation expectations on the rise, Wizman said, the Fed may pay attention to that and may consider not cutting rates.
"Even with the market having adjusted somewhat, it would still come as a surprise," he said.
The Fed is likely to go ahead with cutting short-term U.S. borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point next week, traders bet on Thursday, with futures contracts putting the chances of a 25 basis point cut next week at 94.7%.
The dollar also came under pressure against the yen JPY=EBS after the Bank of Japan took a less dovish tone than expected, while the euro EUR=EBS was stronger after data showed that the euro zone'sinflation accelerated more than expected in October, bolstering the case for caution in European Central Bank interest rate cuts.
The dollar was down 0.8%against the yen at 152.18 yen, and the euro was last 0.04%higher against the dollarat $1.0859.
"Some of the move is likely a function of yen demand after a marginally more hawkish BoJ during the Asia session, as well as some upside in the euro after hotter-than-expected CPI figures dented the chances of a 50 basis points December ECB cut," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.
Traders were also likely taking the opportunity to book profits after the dollar's strong run in recent weeks, Brown said.
The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency's strength against a basket of major peers, roseas much as 4.5% from its September lows.
Attention now turns to Friday's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report and theU.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
Economists polled by Reuters estimate 113,000 jobs were added in October, although the number could be lower due to recent hurricanes.
"A slightly hotter or slightly cooler (jobs) number to me probably doesn't change the dial too much given the upbeat trend in recent economic data," said IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore.
"It makes sense to me to be ... taking some risk off and moving to the sidelines" ahead of a week that will "set the tone for the end of the year," he said.
Some investors have been putting on trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump will win, helping to lift the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, although he remainsneck and neck with Democratic VicePresident Kamala Harris in several polls.
Trump's pledgesto implement tax cuts, loosenfinancial regulations and raise tariffs are seen as inflationary and could slow the Federal Reserve in its policy easing path.
On Thursday, the BOJ maintained ultra-low interest rates but said risks around the U.S. economy were somewhat subsiding, signaling that conditions are falling into place to raise interest rates again.
Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks were seen as less dovish than those made before the meeting that the BOJ could "afford to spend time" scrutinising the fallout from risks such as U.S. economic uncertainties.
Elsewhere, sterling GBP=D3 fell 0.8%to $1.2857, a day after Britishfinance minister Rachel Reeves launched the biggest tax increases since 1993 in her first budget.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was 3.2% lower at $70,458, about 4% shy of its record high from March.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Saqb Iqbal Ahmed and Laura Matthews in New York; Additional reporting by Medha Singh and Brigid Riley; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Lisa Shumaker and Leslie Adler
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
