Another day of all-time low for rupee as dollar, US rates extend rally
By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI, Nov 14 (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is likely to dip to a lifetime low on Thursday in wake of the dollar and U.S. rates extending their post-U.S. election rally.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee INR=IN will open at 84.42-84.44 to the U.S. dollar compared with 84.3775 in the previous session and past the all-time low of 84.4125 hit on Tuesday.
The dollar index =USD rose to 106.64 in Asia, the highest in a year. The index has now rallied nearly 3% following Donald Trump's win.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 4.48%, the highest in 3-1/2 months.
Trump's expected policies of imposing tariffs on imports and tax cuts have prompted investors to pile on the U.S. dollar and dump U.S. Treasuries.
On the back of the relentless up move on the dollar, the rupee has been making new lows. Nevertheless, the rupee has declined much less than its Asian peers, thanks largely to the Reserve Bank of India's support.
The central bank has been allowing the currency to depreciate following the U.S. elections at a pace that it reckons will not spur excessive volatility.
"The price action is all you need to see to make out that the direction (on dollar/rupee) is higher, and the rate at which it will move up will be quite unspectacular," a currency trader at a bank says.
The next "obvious" key level to watch is 84.50, he said.
DOLLAR NOT BOTHERED BY FED OUTLOOK
The odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at next month's meeting jumped following the in-line October U.S. inflation data.
Per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will slash borrowing cost by 25 basis points at the December meeting are now at 84%, up from 60% a day prior.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee INRNDFOR= forward at 84.54; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.50 paise
** Dollar index =USD up at 106.64
** Brent crude futures LCOc1 down 0.3% at $72.1 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.48%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $336.9 mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 12
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $43 mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 12
Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala
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