Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 26 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbedabout 2% to a fresh one-year high on Tuesday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand and on rising gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 6.2 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.431 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), theirhighest close since November 2023 for a second day in a row.

Futures for January NGF25, which will soon be the front-month, were up about 2 cents to $3.46per mmBtu.

Recent gains in prices have pushed the front-month into technically overbought territory and cut the oil-to-gas ratio to its lowest since January 2023, which could prompt energy firms to drill for more gas.

The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, fell to 20-to-1 on Tuesday. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.

So far in 2024, crude prices have traded about 35 times over gas. That compares with 30 times over gas in 2023 and 20 times over gas during the prior five years (2018-2022).

In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across parts of the U.S. caused gas prices to rise to their highest levels since January in several regions, including New York NG-CG-NY-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL and the Eastern Gas South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states edged up to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts expect producers to boost output in 2025 as rising demand from LNG export plants increase gas prices after drillers reduced production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cutusage of the fuel.

Annual average gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana were expected to soar by over 40% in 2025 after dropping to a four-year low in 2024, according to analysts forecasts. NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 will go from mostly warmer than normal from Nov. 26-28 to colder than normal from Nov. 29-Dec. 6 before switching to near normal levels from Dec. 7-11.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 114.3 bcfd this week to 136.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices traded near a one-year high of $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near an 11-month high of $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C