US natgas prices edge up 1% on rising LNG feedgas, spike in European prices
U.S. gas prices rose for fourth week in a row
U.S. LNG feedgas on track to hit 10-month high
Gas prices in Europe hold near 11-month high
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday due to an increase in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to a 10-month high and the recent spike in gas prices in Europe to an 11-month high.
Capping that price increase was a risein daily output and forecasts for less cold weather in late November than previously expected, whichshould reduce heating demand and allow utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage for another week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.823 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
For the week, the front-month was up about 6%, putting it upfor a fourth week in a row for the first time since September. During those four weeks, the contract has gained about 25%.
Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022.
There was currently about 7% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Prior to the last moth or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output rose by about 2.7 bcfd over the prior four days to 101.2 bcfd on Thursday, up from a nine-month low of 98.4 bcfd on Nov. 10.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 30 except for some near normal days from Nov. 21-24.
But with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week and 117.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a 10-month high of 14.4 bcfd on Friday with flows to a few plants hitting multi-week highs in recent days.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas prices traded near an 11-month high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 on supply concerns afterRussia told Austria it would suspend gas deliveries from Saturday.NG/EU
Week ended Nov 15 Forecast | Week ended Nov 8 Actual | Year ago Nov 15 | Five-year average Nov 15 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +20 | +42 | +12 | -16 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,994 | 3,974 | 3,828 | 3,730 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.1% | 6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 14.24 | 14.30 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.56 | 13.57 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 264 | 286 | 255 | 283 | 309 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 9 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 273 | 293 | 265 | 295 | 318 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 100.9 | 99.6 | 100.1 | 104.3 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.2 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.4 | 108.5 | 108.3 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.4 | 13.9 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.0 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 10.6 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.1 | 32.3 | 30.1 | 28.7 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.7 | 23.1 | 23.4 | 22.6 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.7 | 85.9 | 86.5 | 79.1 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 102.1 | 108.1 | 109.1 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 87 | 87 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 89 | 89 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 15 | Week ended Nov 8 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.11 | 2.06 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.86 | 2.00 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.22 | 3.67 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.72 | 1.81 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.78 | 2.01 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.05 | 2.60 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.51 | 2.59 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.14 | -0.47 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.60 | 0.77 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 43.75 | 54.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 35.25 | 42.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 12.50 | 22.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 27.75 | 30.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 23.75 | 26.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 36.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans and Nick Zieminski
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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