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US natgas prices edge up 1% on rising LNG feedgas, spike in European prices



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U.S. gas prices rose for fourth week in a row

U.S. LNG feedgas on track to hit 10-month high

Gas prices in Europe hold near 11-month high

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday due to an increase in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to a 10-month high and the recent spike in gas prices in Europe to an 11-month high.

Capping that price increase was a risein daily output and forecasts for less cold weather in late November than previously expected, whichshould reduce heating demand and allow utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage for another week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.823 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

For the week, the front-month was up about 6%, putting it upfor a fourth week in a row for the first time since September. During those four weeks, the contract has gained about 25%.

Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022.

There was currently about 7% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Prior to the last moth or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output rose by about 2.7 bcfd over the prior four days to 101.2 bcfd on Thursday, up from a nine-month low of 98.4 bcfd on Nov. 10.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 30 except for some near normal days from Nov. 21-24.

But with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week and 117.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a 10-month high of 14.4 bcfd on Friday with flows to a few plants hitting multi-week highs in recent days.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices traded near an 11-month high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 on supply concerns afterRussia told Austria it would suspend gas deliveries from Saturday.NG/EU

Week ended Nov 15 Forecast

Week ended Nov 8 Actual

Year ago Nov 15

Five-year average

Nov 15

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+20

+42

+12

-16

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,994

3,974

3,828

3,730

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

7.1%

6.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.69

2.79

3.06

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

14.24

14.30

14.45

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.56

13.57

17.02

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

264

286

255

283

309

U.S. GFS CDDs

9

7

10

12

9

U.S. GFS TDDs

273

293

265

295

318

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

100.9

99.6

100.1

104.3

98.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.5

9.0

8.2

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

109.4

108.5

108.3

N/A

105.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.4

2.4

2.5

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.6

5.9

5.9

N/A

5.5

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

13.9

14.3

13.8

11.0

U.S. Commercial

8.0

9.6

10.3

8.8

11.5

U.S. Residential

10.6

13.6

15.4

11.8

16.8

U.S. Power Plant

33.1

32.3

30.1

28.7

28.8

U.S. Industrial

22.7

23.1

23.4

22.6

24.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.1

3.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

81.7

85.9

86.5

79.1

90.0

Total U.S. Demand

102.1

108.1

109.1

N/A

109.4

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2003

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

92

92

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

87

87

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

89

89

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Nov 15

Week ended Nov 8

2023

2022

2021

Wind

13

13

10

11

10

Solar

5

4

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

43

43

41

38

37

Coal

13

14

17

21

23

Nuclear

20

19

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.11

2.06

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.86

2.00

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

4.22

3.67

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.72

1.81

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.78

2.01

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.05

2.60

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.51

2.59

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.14

-0.47

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.60

0.77

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

43.75

54.00

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

35.25

42.75

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

12.50

22.75

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

27.75

30.00

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

23.75

26.50

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

36.00

36.00



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans and Nick Zieminski

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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