US natgas climbs more than 3% on cold weather forecast, set for monthly gain
Nov 29 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed more than 3% on Friday and were on track for a monthly gain, driven by forecasts for colder weather that should boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling more gas from storage.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 10.8 cents, or 3.4%, to $3.31 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:18 a.m. EST (1419 GMT). The contract has gained about 22% so far this month.
"Natural gas is snapping back as cold weathers, unlike we have seen in recent years is making a comeback. We are seeing it impact gas prices not only here in the U.S. but in Europe as their supplies are dwindling at the fastest rate in years raising renewed concerns of energy shortages if their winter stays cold," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
LSEG estimated 402 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 382 forecast on Thursday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed utilities pulled an expected 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage last week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal now through Dec. 3 to mostly near-normal from Dec. 4-12.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 131.3 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
Analysts expect producers to boost gas output in 2025 as rising demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increases prices after drillers reduced production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
"While natural gas production in the U.S. may edge up, many producers are going to try to stay disciplined. In past years when they raised production in response to the first cold front they were left holding the gas," Flynn added.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely steady on Friday morning amid muted market activity and some profit-taking, with supply and weather forecasts little changed. NG/EU
Week ended Nov 29 Forecast | Week ended Nov 22 Actual | Year ago Nov 29 | Five-year average Nov 29 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -38 | -2 | -81 | -47 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,929 | 3,967 | 3,752 | 3,653 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.6% | 7.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.33 | 3.30 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 15.11 | 14.29 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 15.02 | 14.94 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 402 | 382 | 318 | 354 | 366 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 405 | 385 | 322 | 360 | 371 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.1 | 102.8 | 102.3 | 105.3 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.3 | 112.1 | 111.6 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.7 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 12.5 | 16.4 | 16.9 | 15.5 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 19.6 | 26.9 | 27.7 | 25.5 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.7 | 31.4 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.2 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 25.3 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 93.8 | 108.3 | 109.9 | 107.5 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 115.7 | 131.3 | 133.1 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 88 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 90 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 29 | Week ended Nov 22 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 13 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.39 | 3.19 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.67 | 3.33 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.79 | 3.57 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.84 | 3.05 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.92 | 3.11 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 10.34 | 4.43 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.71 | 3.23 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.92 | 2.14 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.97 | 1.48 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 54.25 | 55.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 28.00 | 38.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 30.75 | 32.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 52.25 | 51.25 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 33.75 | 43.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 45.5 | 47.25 |
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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