Stocks, bond prices fall after Fed sounds cautious, BOJ hold weakens yen

Reuters

Stocks, bond prices fall after Fed sounds cautious, BOJ hold weakens yen

Dec 19, 2024 at 1:11 pm GMT

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European, Asian stocks follow Wall Street lower after Fed meeting

Dollar gives back some gains on most currencies after Wednesday jump

Yen weakens to 157 per dollar level after BOJ decision

BOJ and Bank of England both stand pat as expected

Updates with BoE rate decision, refreshes prices throughout

By Ankur Banerjee and Alun John

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) -Stocks around the world fell on Thursday, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest since May, a day after the Federal Reserve said it would temper the pace of rate cuts, kicking off a busy 24 hours for other central banks.

The Bank of Japan took up the market-moving baton on Thursday, keeping rates steady as expected, but the yen weakened as markets took the message from Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference that a January rate hike was not the done deal they had previously thought.

That, in combination with the hawkish message from the Fed, sent the dollar up by 1%, at one point, to above 157 yen, its highest since July. JPY=EBS

But it was not just a dollar move. The euro, under fire against most other currencies, also gained 1.8% on the yen to 163.2. EURJPY=EBS

"The market’s expectation seems to be that a rate hike at the January meeting is unlikely," said Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist, Mizuho Securities, pointing to Ueda's remarks about the importance of wage data, due in the spring.

The Bank of England kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4.75% on Thursday, but policymakers became more divided about whether rate cuts were needed to tackle a slowing economy.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank needed to stick to its existing "gradual approach" to cutting rates.

"There should be some weakness in the UK economy then the BoE will be in a position to accelerate the pace of rate cuts,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

In Europe, Sweden's central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and Norway's kept its rates on hold, both as expected.

Europe's STOXX 600 .STOXX share index declined more than 1%, while Asian stocks .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.5%, spooked by the prospect of fewer U.S. rate cuts. .N .EU

FED-INDUCED SELLOFF

Wall Street was poised to open higher on Thursday after investors digested the Federal Reserve's projections of fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and higher inflation next year that pummeled Wall Street a day earlier.

Dow E-minis 1YMcv1 were up 229 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 E-minis EScv1 were up 41 points, or 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis NQcv1 rose 158 points, or 0.7%.

Even though the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday as expected, Chair Jerome Powell's explicit reference to the need for caution sent markets into a tailspin. All three major U.S. indexes posted their biggest daily decline in months on Wednesday.

That also caused a selloff in government bonds and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR reached 4.54% on Thursday, up around 4 basis points, after an 11 bps jump in the aftermath of the Fed. US/

European government bond yields also rose sharply in sympathy on Thursday. GVD/EUR

U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025, half a percentage point less than officials anticipated as of September.

Markets have gone further. They are not fully pricing another Fed rate cut until July and suggest a reasonable possibility of no other moves next year.

Investors also noted Powell's remarks that some officials were contemplating the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's plans, such as higher tariffs and lower taxes, on their policies.

"The risks that are clearly inherent here, and left partially unsaid, are what the Trump administration could bring to the table in terms of inflationary pressure," said Rob Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"If the market decides the Fed's done, whether it's Trump or inflation picks up regardless over the next year, the risk is that we could re-price towards hikes later on."

Apart from against the yen, the dollar retreated somewhat on Thursday after jumping sharply on the Fed news, and hitting its highest in more than two years against a basket of peers. =USD

The euro EUR=EBS was last 0.5% higher at $1.0403, and the pound was up 0.3% at $1.2610, following the BoE meeting. GBP=D3 FRX/

Bitcoin BTC= briefly slipped below $100,000 after Powell said the Fed has no desire to be involved in any government effort to stockpile large amounts of bitcoin, though was last a touch above that level.

Gold XAU= was last up roughly 1% at $2,610 per ounce, having hit its lowest in a month a day earlier. GOL/

Oil prices dipped on demand concerns, with Brent crude down 26 cents to $73.13 /LCOc1 and New York futures down 16 cents to $70.42 a barrel /CLc1. O/R

World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

Japan's yen under pressure https://tmsnrt.rs/36El8HW

Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore and Alun John in London, additional reporting by Naomi Rovnick in London, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, writing by Nell Mackenzie in London, Editing by Jamie Freed, Lincoln Feast, Varun H K and Alex Richardson

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