Sinopec forecasts China's petroleum consumption to peak by 2027
China's petroleum consumption to peak by 2027, Sinopec forecasts
Trump administration's impact on China's energy industry uncertain
Diesel and gasoline demand to weaken
Rewrites first paragraph, adds comment from Sinopec official in paras 4-6, adds chart and refined products and petrochemicals paras 7-11
BEIJING, Dec 19 (Reuters) -Sinopec said on Thursday it expects China's petroleum consumption to peak by 2027 as diesel and gasoline demand weakens, while noting that the incoming Trump administration represented a major question mark for China's energy industry.
The 2027 peak will be no more than 800 million metric tons or 16 million barrels per day, the state energy giant said. This is a clearer forecast than last year, when Sinopec put the peak at around 800 million tons between 2026 and 2030.
That would be up from the 750 million tons consumed in 2024. This year's level was down about 10 million tons from last year and was the second annual decline in two decades, according to the company's outlook.
Donald Trump's second term in office is key to watch for 2025, said Wang Pei, deputy general manager of the Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute, adding that the biggest uncertainty for the market is how potential changes to the U.S. sanctions regime could affect Iran's 1.5 million barrels per day of oil exports.
China is Iran's biggest buyer of oil, with most going to independent refineries.
Changes to environmental policies, as well as trade and technology barriers, will affect China's economy and energy transition, she said, pointing to the significant impact of the last trade war.
But Trump could also reduce tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, removing some risk premium from markets, Wang added.
Sinopec said broader use of LNG and electric vehicles would reduce demand for gasoline and diesel and that the petrochemical sector will ultimately consume more oil than the transport sector.
Diesel demand is expected to fall 5.5% year on year to 174 million tons. LNG-fuelled trucks, which were 22% of the fleet in the first three quarters, displaced 49 million tons of diesel in 2024.
Gasoline demand is set to decline 2.4% to 173 million tons in 2025. Electric vehicles will displace about 26 million tons or 15% of gasoline consumption.
Of the three key refined products, only aviation fuel use is expected to grow, by 7% on the year to 45.5 million tons.
The petrochemical sector is set to account for 55% of oil consumption in 2060, up from 22% in 2024, Sinopec said.
China's crude oil output is expected to reach 215 million tons in 2025, with oil refining capacity at between 960 million and 970 million tons per annum.
Crude oil output for January to November this year was 194.92 million tons, up 1.9% from a year earlier, according to government data.
Sinopec also said China's natural gas consumption may peak earlier but at a higher level than it forecast last year.
By 2030, China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 570 billion cubic metres (bcm) and plateau at around 620 bcm between 2035 and 2040. In last year's forecast, Sinopec said China's natural gas consumption would plateau at 610 bcm by around 2040.
Natural gas consumption is forecast at 458 bcm in 2025, up 6.6% year on year, Sinopec added.
It also expects China's carbon emissions from energy-related activities to now peak at a higher level.
Energy-related carbon emissions are expected to peak before 2030 at between 10.8 billion and 11.12 billion tons. By comparison, last year's forecast was for a peak at around 10.1 billion tons between 2026 and 2030.
China oil consumption by sector https://tmsnrt.rs/3BDssDS
Reporting by Colleen Howe, Ella Cao, Florence Tan, Siyi Liu; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Nicholas Yong
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
