Platinum market faces third consecutive deficit in 2025, WPIC says
Platinum market deficit will be lower in 2025 than 2024, WPIC says
Supply seen up 1% in 2025 as higher recycling offsets lower mine output
Total demand seen down 1% in 2025 after steady 2024
Auto demand for platinum to hit an eight-year high in 2025
LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) -The global platinum market will be in a structural deficit for a third consecutive year in 2025 as mine supply remains constrained despite rising recycling and a 1% decline in demand, the World Platinum Investment Council said on Tuesday.
The WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, expects the global market to show a shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces of platinum next year compared with a revised estimated deficit of 682,000 ounces this year.
"The market is facing the third year of pretty material deficit in 2025, with automotive demand expected to grow to an eight-year high and jewellery demand to rise for the second year in a row after bottoming out," said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC.
This year's forecast was reduced from the deficit of 1.0 million ounces predicted by the WPIC in September, as a more stable power supply in South Africa helped the country's mines to process more concentrates held as a work-in-progress inventory.
Next year, the WPIC expects mine supply to fall 2% due to lower South African production and to be fully offset by a 12% recovery in recycled supply.
Meanwhile, demand from the auto sector, which uses platinum in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems, is projected to fall by 2% this year to 3.2 million ounces due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
Next year, the WPIC sees the auto demand recovering by 2% to its highest level since 2017 due to growth in sales of hybrid vehicles, stricter emissions legislation, and platinum-for-palladium substitution, the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, added.
To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks will fall by 15% to 3.0 million ounces, equal to just over four months of global demand.
PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND ('000 oz)*
2022 | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f | 24/23 change | 25/24 change | Q3 2023 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
SUPPLY | |||||||||
Refined production: | 5,520 | 5,604 | 5,626 | 5,550 | 0% | -1% | 1,393 | 1,541 | 1,479 |
- South Africa | 3,915 | 3,957 | 4,000 | 3,929 | 1% | -2% | 984 | 1,128 | 1,073 |
- Zimbabwe | 480 | 507 | 504 | 522 | -1% | 3% | 132 | 126 | 126 |
- North America | 263 | 275 | 252 | 232 | -8% | -8% | 60 | 59 | 60 |
- Russia | 663 | 674 | 678 | 676 | 1% | 0% | 168 | 181 | 172 |
- Other | 200 | 190 | 191 | 191 | 0% | 0% | 48 | 48 | 48 |
Change in producer inventory | +43 | +11 | +57 | +0 | -6 | +35 | +0 | ||
Total mining supply | 5,563 | 5,615 | 5,683 | 5,550 | 1% | -2% | 1,387 | 1,576 | 1,479 |
Recycling: | 1,762 | 1,544 | 1,587 | 1,774 | 3% | 12% | 347 | 388 | 348 |
- Autocatalyst | 1,322 | 1,143 | 1,176 | 1,346 | 3% | 14% | 254 | 297 | 260 |
- Jewellery | 372 | 331 | 335 | 347 | 1% | 4% | 75 | 72 | 68 |
- Industrial | 69 | 71 | 76 | 81 | 8% | 6% | 17 | 19 | 20 |
TOTAL SUPPLY | 7,326 | 7,159 | 7,269 | 7,324 | 2% | 1% | 1,733 | 1,964 | 1,827 |
DEMAND | |||||||||
Automotive | 2,751 | 3,223 | 3,173 | 3,245 | -2% | 2% | 771 | 805 | 750 |
Jewellery | 1,880 | 1,849 | 1,951 | 1,983 | 5% | 2% | 446 | 497 | 478 |
Industrial: | 2,336 | 2,449 | 2,434 | 2,216 | -1% | -9% | 490 | 667 | 565 |
- Chemical | 694 | 786 | 563 | 656 | -28% | 17% | 147 | 140 | 137 |
- Petroleum | 193 | 161 | 161 | 211 | 0% | 31% | 39 | 40 | 40 |
- Electrical | 106 | 89 | 90 | 92 | 1% | 2% | 22 | 23 | 24 |
- Glass | 505 | 521 | 671 | 286 | 29% | -57% | 64 | 225 | 125 |
- Medical | 278 | 292 | 303 | 314 | 4% | 4% | 71 | 77 | 78 |
- Hydrogen stationary | 12 | 29 | 64 | 84 | 123% | 32% | 7 | 14 | 17 |
- Other | 548 | 571 | 582 | 574 | 2% | -1% | 139 | 148 | 144 |
Investment: | -516 | 397 | 393 | 420 | -1% | 7% | 50 | 462 | -226 |
- Change in Bars/Coins | 259 | 322 | 171 | 151 | -47% | -12% | 86 | 17 | 69 |
- China Bars 500g+ | 90 | 134 | 157 | 170 | 17% | 8% | 35 | 41 | 30 |
- Change in ETF Holdings | -558 | -74 | 150 | 50 | -67% | -99 | 444 | -300 | |
- Change in Stocks Held by Exchanges | -307 | 14 | -85 | 50 | 28 | -40 | -25 | ||
Total Demand | 6,451 | 7,918 | 7,951 | 7,863 | 0% | -1% | 1,756 | 2,431 | 1,567 |
Balance | 874 | -759 | -682 | -539 | -23 | -467 | 260 | ||
Above Ground Stocks | 4,993 | 4,235 | 3,553 | 3,014 | -16% | -15% |
Source: Metals Focus 2020–2025 via WPIC.
WPIC platinum S&D balance forecast https://tmsnrt.rs/4eNWd21
Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Paul Simao
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
