Funds fortify bullish corn bets after USDA's supply slashing -Braun
Repeats COLUMN originally published on Dec 15, no changes. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Dec 15 (Reuters) -Speculators last month turned optimistic toward Chicago-traded corn for the first time in more than a year as U.S. exporters were posting jaw-dropping sales volumes.
In fact, U.S. corn demand has been so good that it forced the U.S. Department of Agriculture last Tuesday to slash its U.S. corn carryout estimate by 10%. That was well below analyst expectations and below year-ago levels, too.
In the week ended Tuesday, Dec. 10, money managers expanded their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 165,890 contracts from 88,220 a week earlier. The new stance is their most bullish since February 2023.
That move included the addition of more than 53,000 gross long positions, the most for any week since November 2021. Most-active CBOT corn futures Cv1 rose nearly 4% during the week before notching a six-month high on Wednesday of $4.51-1/4 per bushel.
Money managers’ bullish corn views perhaps make sense given that 2024-25 U.S. corn carryout ideas have tumbled more than 30% since the start of this year. But they stick out relative to funds’ bearish wheat and soybean takes.
Whenever speculators are sufficiently net long in CBOT corn, they also tend to hold net longs in CBOT wheat and soybeans, or at least in the combination of the two. As of Dec. 10, money managers’ net shorts in wheat and soybeans combined to 125,099 futures and options contracts.
This anomalous spread between funds’ corn views and their wheat and soybean views could imply that one or more of these positions are out of bounds and due for a correction.
When it comes to funds’ bullish corn and bearish soy positions, the recent setup most closely resembles that from June and July 2019. Wet weather caused extreme delays in both U.S. corn and soybean planting that year, but only corn futures posted notable gains as U.S. soybean stocks were flirting with 1 billion bushels.
U.S. soybean stocks in 2024-25 are not expected to be anywhere near that burdensome, but they are seen up nearly 40% on the year.
Money managers in the week ended Dec. 10 cut their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 58,320 contracts from 72,217 a week earlier, predominantly on short covering. That is their most bearish soy view for the time of year since 2019.
They also pared their net short in CBOT wheat to 66,779 futures and options contracts from 69,386 a week earlier. Most-active wheat Wv1 had climbed 2.6% that week.
Money managers through Dec. 10 held their net short in CBOT soybean meal at near-record levels, trimming it very slightly to 72,427 futures and options contracts. They also boosted their net long in CBOT soybean oil by about 8,000 to 17,519 contracts after three weeks of active selling.
Corn futures fell 1.6% over the last three sessions while wheat dropped 1.7% and meal recorded 2% losses. Soybeans and soyoil declined fractionally, though traders will be waiting to see if heavier U.S. soybean sales at the end of last week carry into this one. nAQN2JTSZW
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Graphic- Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and options https://tmsnrt.rs/4izW19S
Graphic- Money managers' net position in CBOT corn futures and options versus wheat/soybeans https://tmsnrt.rs/49ypqND
Editing by David Gregorio
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
