China Sept crude steel output falls at slower pace on improved margins, stimulus package
Sept output down 1.1% mth/mth, down 6.1% yr/yr
Daily average in September up 2.2% mth/mth
January-September output down 3.6% yr/yr
October output forecast at around 80 mln tons -analyst
Adds bullets, analyst forecast for October output in paragraph 10
By Amy Lv and Mei Mei Chu
BEIJING, Oct 18 (Reuters) -China's crude steel output in September slid for a fourth consecutive month, dropping by 1.1% from August and 6.1% from a year before, official data showed on Friday, missing expectations of a rebound.
The world's largest steel producing country manufactured 77.07 million metric tons of crude steel last month, the lowest since December 2023 and down from 77.92 million tons in August,data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Some analysts had expected improved seasonal demand and a stimulus package from Beijing would help output rebound in September.
The pace of decline, however, slowed from August, when output fell 6.1% from July and 10.4% from a year earlier.
September's daily output averaged about 2.57 million tons, a rise of 2.2% from 2.51 million tons in August but still lower than 2.74 million tons in September 2023, according to Reuters calculations based on the data.
Beijing unveiled in late September a raft of aggressive stimulus measures to restore confidence and achieve its annual economic growth target of around 5%.
The measures helped to bolster the steel market with rebar prices SRBcv1 rising 5.6% month-on-month to 3,471 yuan a ton by end-September and mills' profitability improving.
Nearly 20% of steel mills were operating at a profit by the end of September, compared with only 3.9% in late August, data from consultancy Mysteel showed.
"Steelmakers gradually turned from losses to profits thanks to the macroeconomic stimulus and the seasonally improved downstream demand since late last month," said Chu Xinli, an analyst at China Futures.
"As a result, the operational rate among some steelmakers was trending upward," Chu said, forecasting output this month to climb to around 80 million tons.
Output over the first three quarters of 2024 dropped 3.6% on the year to 768.48 million tons, the bureau said.
Reporting by Amy Lv and Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Tom Hogue
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