Australia expects export resource earnings to drop 10% in FY2025
Iron ore export earnings expected to fall by about a fifth in FY2024/25
Surging supply, China woes weighing on iron ore prices
Gold and alumina export earnings forecast to rise
MELBOURNE, Dec 20 (Reuters) -Australia expects its resource and energy export earnings to fall by about 10% to A$372 billion ($231.6 billion) in the fiscal year ending June 2025 mostly due to falling iron ore prices and relatively weak global growth, the government said on Friday.
The department of industry warned that policy moves by the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S. across trade, fossil fuel production and climate change could affect its forecasts, particularly protectionist policies.
The figures for the December report were mostly in line with the department's September update.
Australia expects export earnings for its top earner iron ore to slide by around a fifth, or A$30 billion, to A$108 billion by the end of June 2025 from the year before, amid concerns about China's economy and surging global supply.
Supply is expected to expand when Rio Tinto's RIO.AX part-owned Simandou mine in Guinea starts production next year. The mine is set to add some 60 million metric tons to the roughly 2.5 billion ton market once fully ramped up.
The increased supply will continue to weigh on Australia's iron ore export earnings with a further 11% fall projected in fiscal 2026, the report said.
Australia has trimmed its outlook for iron ore prices by $1 a metric ton, to $83 a ton in the current fiscal year and $77 a ton in the following financial year.
Elsewhere, the report projects falls in energy exports. Lower liquid natural gas (LNG) prices will cut earnings by A$4.6 billion, to A$64 billion in fiscal 2024/25, and then to A$60 billion in fiscal 2025/26.
Thermal coal export earnings are forecast to drop by A$3 billion, to A$37 billion, and metallurgical coal exports to decline by A$11 billion, to A$43 billion.
There is little in the way of relief for prices of lithium, which is used in electric vehicle batteries and is in oversupply. Export earnings are estimated at A$4.9 billion in the current financial year, half of last year's A$9.9 billion.
Two commodity outperformers are gold and alumina. Gold export earnings are expected to edge up by A$1 billion, to A$34 billion, while alumina export earnings are expected to rise to A$11.5 billion in fiscal year 2024/25 due to supply disruptions from Guinea.
($1 = 1.6059 Australian dollars)
Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Kate Mayberry
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