Zloty firms, forint and crown stable as markets wait on US vote
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Nov 4 (Reuters) -The Polish zloty firmed while the Czech crown and Hungarian forint held steady on Monday as markets focused on the U.S. presidential election while investors were also looking ahead to central bank meetings later in the week.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.39% stronger and trading at 4.3450 per euro, as it regained losses suffered at the end of last week.
"After a time when the market was rather betting on Trump, these last polls are again tilting towards Harris," an FX trader based in Warsaw said.
"It seems to me that today we are dealing with a bit of unwinding of the Trump-trade and the zloty is also benefiting from this."
Central European currencies have suffered losses in past weeks with the Hungarian forint plunging to a 22-month low as uncertainties around the U.S. presidential election and tensions in the Middle East put pressure on emerging assets.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was up 0.05% to trade at 407.9 to the euro.
"The dollar is easing, which should be supporting the forint," an FX trader in Budapest said. "But that's not really happening, as CEE is not interesting at the moment. I expect volatility to start on Wednesday morning when results of the U.S. presidential election start to come in."
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote.
"In general, the Harris scenario is positive for CEE and the Trump scenario negative for CEE currencies," ING wrote in a note.
"This week we believe our view will be best reflected in PLN/HUF ... in case of a Trump win, HUF will be hit the hardest, while in the case of a Harris win, PLN will have an easier road to recovery," they said.
Investors were also looking to central bank meetings in the United States, as well as more locally in the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania.
The Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.02% to trade at 25.3 versus the common currency.
The Czech National Bank is likely to deliver an eighth straight interest rate cut on Thursday while the National Bank of Poland holds its rate-setting meeting on Wednesday followed by Romania's central bank on Friday.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1131 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | in 2024 | ||||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3000 | 25.3060 | +0.02% | -2.37% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 407.9000 | 408.1000 | +0.05% | -6.06% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3450 | 4.3620 | +0.39% | -0.01% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9750 | 4.9734 | -0.03% | -0.01% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9400 | 117.0500 | +0.09% | +0.26% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1648.64 | 1648.3800 | +0.02% | +16.59% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73853.92 | 73865.96 | -0.02% | +21.83% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2229.98 | 2205.47 | +1.11% | -4.82% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17336.28 | 17470.35 | -0.77% | +12.78% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4280 | 0.0110 | +111bps | -3bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7590 | -0.0370 | +147bps | -7bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0730 | -0.0500 | +165bps | -7bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1260 | -0.0490 | +281bps | -9bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5410 | -0.0420 | +325bps | -8bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.9300 | -0.0010 | +351bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.86 | 3.62 | 3.48 | 4.06 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.59 | 6.58 | 6.45 | 6.50 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.38 | 5.07 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Alan Charlish and Karol Badohal in Warsaw
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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