Week Ahead-RBNZ rate decision, US PCE index, China PMIs lead
Nov 25 (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision, key U.S. inflation data which will further shape Federal Reserve rate expectations, and China's official PMIs lead this week's event risks.
While trading may dwindle heading into the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday November 28th, it is a busy week for U.S. data. Consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond manufacturing index and the FOMC minutes are due Tuesday. Weekly jobs, durable goods, GDP second estimate, personal income, and core PCE price index - the Fed's favoured inflation gauge - on Wednesday. Black Friday sales on November 29th will reveal consumer sentiment.
Market reaction to news that President-elect Donald Trump on Friday said he will nominate prominent investor Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury secretary will also be monitored.
The RBNZ is widely expected to slashits 4.75% cash rate on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 100% probability of a 50 basis points cut and around 25% for 75 bps 0#NZDIRPR. Most economists also expect the bank to flag more easing ahead as the economic outlookremains gloomy. Trade data and ANZ business outlook survey will bereleased.
In China, the People's Bank of China will likelyhold its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2% on Monday. Data releases include industrial profits on Wednesday and the official NBS manufacturing and services PMIs for November on Saturday.
Japanese data begins with services PPI on Tuesday, then Tokyo core CPI, jobs, industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence on Friday, providing a broad snapshot of the economy.
The euro zone has a low-key schedule; consumer and business confidence and its flash HICP on Friday may informEuropean Central bank rate expectations. Germany has the Ifo business climate survey on Monday, inflation on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.
In the UK, MPC Member Lombardelli and MPC Member Dhingra speak at the BoE Watchers' Conference in London on Monday, with no tier-one UK data scheduled this week.
Australia's October CPI on Wednesday is likely to soften and there is a chance that the trimmed mean measure of core inflation might fadeto the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% band. Q3 CAPEX and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's speech are due Thursday. Canada releases its Q3 GDP on Friday while Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes speaks Tuesday.
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand Policy rate forecast https://tmsnrt.rs/3CEz44T
Andrew Spencer and Krishna Kumar are Reuters market analysts. The views expressed are their own. Editing by Ewen Chew
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