Weaker dollar will influence US interest rate
Aug 23 (Reuters) -The dollar, which has tumbled ahead of the start of an anticipated easing cycle in September, will influence the U.S. interest rate.
The dollar index has fallen around 4.4% in the last two months and is effectively easing U.S. monetary policy before the central bank even considers cutting interest rates.
The chance that the Federal Reserve meets extremely elevated expectations for the coming easing cycle has been reduced by the activity of traders who have slashed bets in favour of dollar or sold short hoping that a series of rate cuts depress its value.
While some easing in the United States looks very likely, the U.S. central bank may be a lot more conservative than the rate cut at each of its next seven meetings that's currently implied by futures prices.
Futures suggest the easing cycle will be virtually completed within one year, with the Fed rushing to cut the U.S. interest rate to 3.5% by next June.
That's a stretch of the imagination, given the current state of the economy and the level of inflation, which is above the central bank's target. The stimulus that a falling dollar provides makes it less likely.
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US interest rate outlook https://tmsnrt.rs/3MCsTQN
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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