Weak dollar could pressure Europe's media companies
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WEAK DOLLAR COULD PRESSURE EUROPE'S MEDIA COMPANIES
Europe's media companies .SXMP could be particularly sensitive to foreign exchange rates, analysis from Citi found, especially large-cap companies, given their relatively high exposure to North America.
Citi estimates that circa 56% of revenue and 61% of profit for the seven largest media companies - RELX REL.L, Wolters Kluwer WLSNc.AS, Informa INF.L, UMG UMG.AS, Publicis PUBP.PA, WPP WPP.L and Pearson PSON.L - are generated in U.S. dollars, presenting a challenge due to the weaker dollar.
The pound GBP=D3 and the euro EUR=EBS are the two best performing major currencies against the dollar this year, with the current FX rates standing 3.2% and 1.7% above the 200DMA respectively.
"Given recent weakening of the U.S. dollar vs. both the euro and sterling, this suggests there could be pressure on headline earnings," Citi analysts say in a note.
"We estimate that on average a 5% move in the USD rate vs. major currencies would impact earnings by c.3%."
Looking at individual companies, Citi notes Pearson has the most gearing to a change in the dollar of the large-cap media companies, with around 70% of revenue and 75% of operating profit derived in USD.
WPP has the lowest, Citi finds, with circa 38% of revenue and 48% of profit generated in dollars.
The following chart has been reprinted with permission of Citi Research. Not to be reproduced.
(Samuel Indyk)
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