Vivendi expects Canal+ cash profile to recover through 2025
Rewrites throughout to add context, analyst comment on valuation
By Alban Kacher, Leo Marchandon and Gianluca Lo Nostro
Nov 18 (Reuters) -Vivendi VIV.PA on Monday projected moderate earnings growth for Canal+ and Havas, set to be spun off as part of the French media conglomerate's proposed break-up, ahead of their investor day events.
The group led by tycoon Vincent Bolloré plans to list Canal+ in London while keeping it based in France, and move its Havas advertising arm to Amsterdam for a Netherlands listing.
A third entity, Louis Hachette, comprising Vivendi's publishing and distribution assets, would be listed on the Euronext Growth market in Paris.
Canal+ holds its Capital Markets Day on Monday, and Havas the day after.
Vivendi expects Canal+'s adjusted core profit (EBITA) margin to grow moderately in the medium term, driven by cost control measures and the integration of assets transferred from Vivendi.
Havas' adjusted EBITA is set to exceed 300 million euros ($316 million) this year thanks to controlled operating costs.
Vivendi expects both units' 2024 revenue development to be broadly in line with that of last year, with organic net revenue of between -1% and 0% for Havas. It did not specify a range for Canal+ which last year posted organic growth of 2.9%.
The demerger will replicate Vivendi's shareholding structure in the three new companies, excluding shares directly or indirectly held by the parent company, based on the updated prospectus published on Friday.
Post-distribution, Bolloré, who currently owns 29.9% of Vivendi, would increase his stakes to around 31% in each of the spun-off entities.
Unlike Vivendi's current listing on Euronext Paris, the three floating destinations will not require a public offering if a shareholder's stake exceeds 30%.
Yannick Bollore, chairman of Vivendi's supervisory board, last month estimated the total value of Vivendi's assets at around 16 billion euros, with Canal+, Havas and Louis Hachette being worth about 6.8 billion, 3.4 billion and 2.1 billion euros respectively.
However, UBS analysts value Canal+ and Havas at about 3.9 billion euros and 2.3 billion euros respectively, they said on Monday.
($1 = 0.9487 euros)
Reporting by Alban Kacher, Gianluca Lo Nostro and Leo Marchandon in Gdansk
Editing by Mark Potter and Milla Nissi
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