Value in EUR/USD options without the currency risk
July 15 (Reuters) -FX options can be utilized to trade FX volatility without direct exposure to currency risk. With the current low pricing of EUR/USD options, there might be an opportunity to find value during this busy data week, which also includes the European Central Bank policy announcement.
FX volatility is an unknown, yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in. If FX realised volatility outperforms implied volatility, then the option can profit, and vice versa.
One-week expiry implied volatility is trading at its lowest levels since late May, ataround 4.75 - a premium/break-even of just 57 USD pips. Low implied volatility and a greater chance of FX realised volatility reflects the value potential in owning these options.
Trading this option with an opposing view in the cash market to remove the currency risk (delta neutral), and adjusting that cash hedge on a daily (or more frequent basis), is how the value is captured. The greater the spot volatility, the more likely the 57 USD pip premium can be covered and profits generated.
The benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility has recovered 5.0 after trading a 3-year low at 4.9last week.
FX options wrap nL1N3J40HX
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1-week expiry EUR/USD FX option implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3S8sgBk
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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