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USD/JPY bounce to 155.36 in NY rejected, pair off since



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  • USD/JPY bounced to 155.36 EBS in New York before falling back

  • Rally premised on view BOJ dovish, cautious on hikes roundly rejected?

  • Tokyo interpreted BOJ Ueda-speak yesterday as more hawkish

  • BOJ rarely if ever outright hawkish or dovish, nuance lost on offshore ears?

  • Tokyo sees BOJ on track for a December rate hike, Fed Dec cut and pause?

  • US rates moving accordingly, off overnight, Tsy 2s @4.283%, 10s @4.412%

  • JGB rates also moving accordingly, on up-and-up, 2s @0.548%, 10s @1.064%

  • USD/JPY 154.38-63 in Asia, trading on heavy side, testing 154.40 200-HMA

  • Resistance from 154.75 hourly Ichi kijun, cloud 155.00-31, 55-HMA 155.15

  • Some option expiries today between 154.40-50 $370 mln, 155.50 $321 mln

  • Larger expiries tomorrow - 154.80 $793 mln, 155.00 $923 mln, 156.00 $997 mln

  • Topside expiries likely to help cap along with caution over FX intervention

  • Related comments nL1N3MP0MY, nL1N3MP0H8, nL1N3MP09E, nL1N3MP094

  • And nL1N3ME031, on BOJ nL1N3MP0A7, nL1N3MK07T, nL4N3MK27W

  • Also nL1N3MP0TS, on Fed-speak nL1N3ML16F, US data nS0N3KU04K

  • US markets nL1N3MP0LL, nL1N3MP0VM, nL4N3MP12T, nL1N3MP01I

  • On foreign holdings of US debt nL1N3MP0XN, for more click on FXBUZ


USD/JPY: https://tmsnrt.rs/490S0H5

USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week: https://tmsnrt.rs/3YSEalr

Yield on US Treasury 10s: https://tmsnrt.rs/3OflDLh

Yield on JGB 10s: https://tmsnrt.rs/3OgaUAj

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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