US natural gas prices turn positive on bigger-than-expected storage draw
Updates for market close
Dec 12 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rebounded from earlier losses to trade higher on Thursday after a report showed a bigger-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for colder weather boosted expectations for heating demand over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were settled 7.7 cents, or 2.3%, up at $3.455 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 02:52 p.m. EST (1952 GMT). Prices were down as much as 2.4% before the data was released.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled a larger-than-usual 190 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Dec. 6. That was more than the 165-bcf withdrawal analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 71 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
"It was a much-larger-than-expected storage draw, so that's putting a bit of a bid to the market price," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.
"There are two things that are driving the price action today. One is obviously a larger-than-expected storage draw. The second thing is that 11- to 15-day pattern is getting colder. That indicates a potential for late December maybe even into early January there's a cold weather pattern coming which would be very bullish."
Financial firm LSEG estimated 371 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 365 HDDs on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Venture Global LNG is on track to inaugurate liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana as soon as this week, LSEG data shows.
The Plaquemines plant's output of 20 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) will cement Venture Global as the second-largest LNG exporter in the U.S. by capacity, and ensure the country remains the world's largest exporter of the superchilled gas.
Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 102.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November, LSEG data showed. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were lower on Thursday morning on profit-taking, milder weather expectations and healthy supply.NG/EU
Week ended Dec 6 Actual | Week ended Nov 29 Actual | Year ago Dec 6 | Five-year average Dec 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -190 | -30 | -72 | -71 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,747 | 3,937 | 3,680 | 3,582 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.6% | 7.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.36 | 3.25 | 2.54 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.95 | 13.74 | 11.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | - | 15.02 | 14.03 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 371 | 365 | 318 | 390 | 406 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 374 | 368 | 321 | 395 | 410 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.6 | 103.1 | 102.6 | 105.6 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.4 | N/A | 8.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.2 | 112.9 | 112.0 | N/A | 106.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 14.2 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 10.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.3 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.3 |
U.S. Residential | 28.9 | 25.4 | 23.6 | 22.3 | 23.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.1 | 32.3 | 29.5 | 34.2 | 30.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.0 | 25.2 | 24.7 | 24.7 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 114.6 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 103.3 | 102.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 137.2 | 128.9 | 123.0 | N/A | 121.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 87 | 90 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 86 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 87 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 13 | Week ended Dec 6 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | - | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | - | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | - | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | - | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | - | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | - | 20 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | - | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.13 | 2.90 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.87 | 2.74 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.61 | 3.31 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.85 | 2.65 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.09 | 2.90 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 8.21 | 3.24 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.81 | 3.62 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.75 | 2.74 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.76 | 1.18 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 88.25 | 46.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 44.50 | 42.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 19.50 | 27.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 51.00 | 55.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 43.25 | 39.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 26.25 | 47.50 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Swati Verma; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Paul Simao and Daniel Wallis
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