US natgas slides 2% as less cold weather keeps demand low
Updates for market close
Dec 16 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slipped 2% to a near one-week low on Monday as weather forecasts suggested less cold conditions in the coming weeks, which is expected to lower heating demand.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 6.6 cents, or 2%, lower at $3.214 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 03:11 p.m. EST (2011 GMT).
"Natgas is pulling back as the U.S. is seeing a warm up and disagreements from weather models on how cold January is going to be," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
LSEG estimated 323 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the forecast for 376 HDDs on Friday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, dropping from 129.8 bcfd last week to 125.0 bcfd this week.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 28, except for a few colder-than-normal days from Dec. 21-23.
"We saw a pretty big increase in wind output and that has ultimately displaced some natural gas and coal generation, so power burns are adjusting on a week-over-week basis, which is a good indication that demand is waning in the short term," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.
"If we start to see a reversal of the near-term bearishness towards a bullish forecast of cold for early January, we could see prices find some clear bid support if not rise. However, if we don't get that weather model trending back towards a bullish nature there, we're going to find that we'll be testing $3 support once again."
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to an average of 14.4 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning as forecasts for warmer-than-usual temperatures curbed demand for gas. Also weighing on the market was news on Friday that Hungary had found a solution to enable it to pay for Russian gas.NG/EU
Week ended Dec 13 Forecast | Week ended Dec 6 Actual | Year ago Dec 13 | Five-year average Dec 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -119 | -190 | -92 | -78 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,628 | 3,747 | 3,602 | 3,490 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.0% | 4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.15 | 3.43 | 2.54 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.90 | 13.18 | 11.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.09 | 14.95 | 14.03 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 323 | 376 | 321 | 405 | 418 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 328 | 379 | 323 | 410 | 422 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.2 | 104.0 | 103 | 105.6 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.8 | 10 | 10 | N/A | 8.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.0 | 113.0 | 113.0 | N/A | 106.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.6 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 10.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 15.4 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 14.3 |
U.S. Residential | 25.5 | 23.0 | 25.0 | 22.3 | 23.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.2 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 34.2 | 30.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.2 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 107.4 | 102.0 | 105.0 | 103.3 | 102.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 129.8 | 125.0 | 129.0 | N/A | 121.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 86 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 89 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 89 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 20 | Week ended Dec 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | - | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | - | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | - | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | - | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | - | 38 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | - | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | - | 21 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.15 | 3.12 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.74 | 3.51 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.70 | 3.51 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.70 | 2.89 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.75 | 2.89 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.50 | 12.50 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.68 | 3.87 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.63 | 2.74 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.67 | 1.22 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 75.25 | 101.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 34.00 | 50.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25.25 | 19.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 50.00 | 44.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 37.75 | 36.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 38.25 | 38.50 |
Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and David Gregorio
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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