US natgas prices slip 2% from 13-month high on rising output
Gas flows to Venture Global Plaquemines in Louisiana high enough to produce first LNG
Feedgas to LNG export plants on track to reach 11-month high
Gas futures closed at 13-month high on Thursday
By Scott DiSavino
Dec 13 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% on Friday from a 13-month high reached in the prior session on increased supplies as producers keep pulling more gas out of the ground in anticipation of rising demand from cold winter weather and higher gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Friday's price decline came even as the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to reach an 11-month high as Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines plant under construction in Louisiana likely started pulling in enough fuel to produce first LNG.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.1 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.394 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 8:55 a.m. EST (1355 GMT). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since November 2023.
For the week, the front-month was up about 11% after falling about 9% last week.
Despite this week's price increase, some analysts have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts now that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread was trading in unusual contango. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract.
March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season, and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Because gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, summer prices typically do not trade above winter ones.
It is also possible that gas prices already hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached an intraday high of $3.56 per mmBtu. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019.
In the spot market, meanwhile, gas prices at the Southern California Gas hub NG-SCL-CGT-SNL rose to their highest since January.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 28, except for a few colder-than-normal days from Dec. 21-23.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 129.4 bcfd this week to 125.0 bcfd next week before rising to 136.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to an 11-month high of 14.9 bcfd on Friday, up from 13.6 bcfd on Thursday, with flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine in Louisiana rising to a 13-month high and flows to the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines likely rising enough for the plant to produce first LNG.
Week ended Dec 13 Forecast | Week ended Dec 6 Actual | Year ago Dec 13 | Five-year average Dec 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -119 | -190 | -92 | -78 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,628 | 3,747 | 3,602 | 3,490 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.0% | 4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.43 | 3.46 | 2.54 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.18 | 13.07 | 11.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.95 | 15.00 | 14.03 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 376 | 371 | 319 | 382 | 413 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 379 | 374 | 322 | 387 | 417 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.6 | 103.2 | 102.9 | 105.6 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.5 | N/A | 8.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.2 | 113.0 | 112.5 | N/A | 106.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 14.2 | 13.6 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 10.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.3 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 14.3 |
U.S. Residential | 28.9 | 25.4 | 24.0 | 22.3 | 23.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.1 | 32.8 | 30.1 | 34.2 | 30.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.0 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 25.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 114.6 | 107.0 | 101.4 | 103.3 | 102.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 137.2 | 129.4 | 125.0 | N/A | 121.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 86 | 86 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 82 | 82 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 83 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 13 | Week ended Dec 6 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 14 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 20 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.12 | 3.13 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.51 | 3.87 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.51 | 3.61 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.89 | 2.85 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.89 | 3.09 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 12.50 | 8.21 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.87 | 3.81 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.74 | 2.75 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.22 | 1.25 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 101.25 | 88.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 50.00 | 44.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 19.25 | 19.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 44.00 | 51.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 36.50 | 43.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 38.50 | 26.25 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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