US natgas prices jump 6% to 1-year high on colder weather forecasts, soaring LNG feedgas
Gas flows to US LNG export plants rise to 11-month high
Venture Global Plaquemines in Louisiana pulls in record pipeline gas
Gas prices in Europe and Asia climb to 11-month highs
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 21 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-year high on forecasts for colder weather and rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
That price increase happened before the release of a federal report expected to show utilities added more gas than usual to storage for a fifth week in a row for the first time since October 2022.
Analysts said utilities likely added 6 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 15. That compares with a build of 12 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 16 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 18.5 cents, or 5.8%, to $3.378 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:40 a.m. EST (1340 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since November 2023.
That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row and put it on track to rise for a fifth straight day. During those five days, the contract has gained about 21%.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
That kept output on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID pandemic cut demand in 2020.
That's because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly near normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 6.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 bcfd this week to 115.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LSEG said feedgas was on track to jump to an 11-month high of 14.5 bcfd on Thursday, up from 14.1 bcfd on Wednesday, as flows to a couple of plants rose to record highs.
Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 2.4 bcfd on Thursday, while flows to the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines facility, which is under construction in Louisiana, was on track to rise to a record 60 million cubic feet per day on Thursday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas prices rose to 11-month highs of around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia on worries about Russian supplies and the coming of colder winter weather. NG/EU
Week ended Nov 15 Forecast | Week ended Nov 8 Actual | Year ago Nov 15 | Five-year average Nov 15 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +6 | +42 | +12 | -16 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,980 | 3,974 | 3,828 | 3,730 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 6.7% | 6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.42 | 3.19 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 14.83 | 14.47 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.66 | 14.40 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 376 | 334 | 319 | 312 | 337 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 380 | 329 | 325 | 321 | 344 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 99.6 | 101.8 | 101.9 | 105.7 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 108.5 | 110.6 | 110.3 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.8 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.9 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.6 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 13.7 | 15.4 | 20.1 | 17.4 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.2 | 29.2 | 28.5 | 30.2 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.5 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 85.9 | 85.9 | 93.2 | 90.3 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.1 | 107.8 | 115.7 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 95 | 96 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 92 | 93 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 93 | 94 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 22 | Week ended Nov 15 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 16 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.31 | 2.10 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.29 | 1.97 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.07 | 4.00 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.22 | 1.83 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.43 | 1.99 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.84 | 2.20 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.99 | 2.66 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.67 | 1.22 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.38 | 1.27 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 64.50 | 40.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 40.50 | 30.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 35.00 | 28.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 49.50 | 48.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 34.25 | 29.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 36.00 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao
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