US natgas prices jump 5% on soaring global prices, colder forecasts
Utilities likely added more gas to storage than normal for fifth time last week
Speculators cut net shorts to lowest since mid October
Gas prices in Europe and Asia jump to 11-month highs on supply worries
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 18 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5%on Monday on soaring global gas prices and forecastsfor colder weatherand more heating demand in the U.S. nextweek than previously expected.
U.S. front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.0 cents, or 5.3%, to settle at $2.973 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
With gas futures up about 25% over the past four weeks, speculators last week cut their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to the lowest since mid October, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
That price jump came despiteforecasts for the weather to remain mild this week, keeping heating demand low and allowingutilities to inject more gas than usual into storage for another week.
Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022.
There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Prior to the last month or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, output hit a two-week high of 102.3 bcfd on Nov. 16, up from a recent nine-month low of 98.5 bcfd on Nov. 10.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 28 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 29-Dec. 3.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this week to 117.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas prices jumped to an 11-month high of around $15per mmBtu at boththe Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia on worries about supplies fromRussia and elsewhere ahead of coming cold winter weather.NG/EU
Week ended Nov 15 Forecast | Week ended Nov 8 Actual | Year ago Nov 15 | Five-year average Nov 15 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +20 | +42 | +12 | -16 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,994 | 3,974 | 3,828 | 3,730 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.1% | 6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.87 | 2.82 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 14.24 | 14.30 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.25 | 13.56 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 301 | 264 | 319 | 312 | 323 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 309 | 273 | 325 | 321 | 331 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 99.6 | 102.0 | 101.7 | 105.7 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 108.5 | 110.5 | 110.0 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.1 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.9 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 13.7 | 15.2 | 19.8 | 17.4 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.2 | 29.6 | 30.0 | 30.2 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.4 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 85.9 | 85.7 | 94.2 | 90.3 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.1 | 108.3 | 117.1 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 99 | 92 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 96 | 87 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 97 | 89 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 22 | Week ended Nov 15 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 16 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.65 | 2.11 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.57 | 1.86 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.07 | 4.22 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.48 | 1.72 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.48 | 1.78 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.72 | 2.05 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.30 | 2.51 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.17 | 0.14 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.73 | 0.60 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 36.25 | 43.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 24.25 | 35.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 16.00 | 12.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 31.75 | 27.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 23.50 | 23.75 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 36.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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