US natgas prices fall 3% to two-month low on big storage build, rising output
Adds closing prices
By Scott DiSavino
July 11 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a two-month low on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected weekly storage build as output rose and the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants dropped after Freeport LNG in Texas shut early this week for Hurricane Beryl.
Freeport started taking in small amounts of gas again on Thursday after power generators consumed adaily record amount of gas on Tuesday to keep air conditioners humming on the hottest day so far this summer.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.1 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.268 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), theirlowest close since May 10.
That price drop also kept the front-month intechnically oversold territory for a third day in a row.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 65 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 5.
That was more than the 55-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 57 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 57 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
That build boosted the amount of gas in storage to around 19% above normal levels for this time of year.
Before the latest storage build, traders noted that injections were smaller than usual for eight weeks in a row because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
Higher prices in April, May and June prompted some producers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad. But with prices now down about 12% so far in July, energy traders say it will be interesting to see whether drillers will keep boosting output over the next month or two.
EQT is the nation's biggest gas producer, and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest after its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Even though power generators were burning near record amounts of gas to keep air conditioners humming during a brutal heat wave, those gas burns were slightly depressed because roughly 1.3 million homes and businesses were still without power in Texas on Thursday in the wake of Hurricane Beryl.
At its peak Beryl, which hit Texas on Monday, knocked out power to over 2.7 million customers.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least July 26.
With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 106.3 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.9 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on Sunday, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended July 5 Actual | Week ended June 28 Actual | Year ago July 5 | Five-year average July 5 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +65 | +32 | +57 | +57 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,199 | 3,134 | 2,915 | 2,695 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 18.7% | 18.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.31 | 2.33 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.92 | 9.77 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.35 | 12.37 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 252 | 261 | 226 | 211 | 204 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 255 | 264 | 229 | 214 | 207 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.0 | 102.3 | 102.1 | 102.1 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.l | 8.2 | 7.9 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.0 | 110.5 | 110.0 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.4 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 41.9 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 44.5 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 78.5 | 86.6 | 86.8 | 81.3 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.1 | 106.3 | 106.6 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 75 | 75 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 12 | Week ended Jul 5 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.40 | 2.42 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.80 | 1.96 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.40 | 3.18 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.56 | 1.60 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.84 | 1.92 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.92 | 2.09 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.97 | 2.74 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.55 | 1.91 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.95 | 0.75 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 56.00 | 123.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 37.75 | 98.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.50 | 28.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 145.00 | 102.67 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 115.50 | 129.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 96.75 | 112.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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